Power System Reliability Assessment Under Electric Vehicle and Photovoltaic Uncertainty

IF 4.2 2区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC

IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI:10.1109/TIA.2025.3532567

Jitendra Thapa;Joshua Olowolaju;Mohammed Benidris;Hanif Livani

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Abstract

In recent years, the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and variable energy resources such as photovoltaic (PV) has increased with the desire to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, decrease emissions, and promote sustainable energy. However, the increasing adoption of EVs and PVs has introduced unprecedented challenges to the reliability of power systems. The challenge lies in the inherent intermittency associated with solar generation and the uncertainty introduced by the charging load of EVs on the demand side of power grids. Therefore, it is indispensable from the perspective of power system operation and planning to consider the uncertainties associated with the output power of these resources in the reliability assessment framework. This paper develops an electric vehicle load model considering diverse charging station locations, EV types, and drivers' behavior. Also, the proposed method integrates the uncertainty of PV generation through interval prediction utilizing the K-Nearest Neighbors regressor. A sequential Monte Carlo simulation is used to analyze the impact of PV interval (forecasted lower and upper generation profile), EV load (hourly and peak), line failures, and demographic characteristics associated with EV on power system reliability. The reliability assessment is extended to sensitivity analysis and evaluation of the impact of EV loads and PV generation profiles on the capacity value of PV generators with different capacities, utilizing the Discrete Convolution approach. The proposed approach is demonstrated on the IEEE Reliability Test System and the results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach in determining the reliability of the power system by explicitly accommodating PV uncertainties and the intricacies of EVs.

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电动汽车和光伏不确定性下电力系统可靠性评估

近年来，随着人们希望减少对化石燃料的依赖，减少排放，促进可持续能源的发展，电动汽车（ev）和光伏（PV）等可变能源的采用有所增加。然而，电动汽车和光伏汽车的日益普及对电力系统的可靠性提出了前所未有的挑战。挑战在于太阳能发电固有的间歇性，以及电动汽车充电负荷对电网需求端的不确定性。因此，在可靠性评估框架中，必须从电力系统运行和规划的角度考虑与这些资源输出功率相关的不确定性。本文建立了考虑不同充电站位置、电动汽车类型和驾驶员行为的电动汽车负荷模型。此外，该方法利用k近邻回归量进行区间预测，整合了光伏发电的不确定性。时序蒙特卡罗模拟用于分析PV间隔（预测的下、上一代分布）、电动汽车负荷（小时和峰值）、线路故障以及与电动汽车相关的人口特征对电力系统可靠性的影响。利用离散卷积方法，将可靠性评估扩展到电动汽车负荷和光伏发电剖面对不同容量光伏发电机组容量值影响的敏感性分析和评估。该方法在IEEE可靠性测试系统上进行了验证，结果表明该方法在确定电力系统可靠性方面是有效的，该方法明确地考虑了光伏发电的不确定性和电动汽车的复杂性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications 工程技术-工程：电子与电气

CiteScore

9.90

自引率

9.10%

发文量

747

审稿时长

3.3 months

期刊介绍： The scope of the IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications includes all scope items of the IEEE Industry Applications Society, that is, the advancement of the theory and practice of electrical and electronic engineering in the development, design, manufacture, and application of electrical systems, apparatus, devices, and controls to the processes and equipment of industry and commerce; the promotion of safe, reliable, and economic installations; industry leadership in energy conservation and environmental, health, and safety issues; the creation of voluntary engineering standards and recommended practices; and the professional development of its membership.