Association of recreational cannabis legalization with changes in medical, illegal, and total cannabis expenditures in Canada

IF 4.4 2区医学 Q1 SUBSTANCE ABUSE

International Journal of Drug Policy Pub Date : 2025-04-05 DOI:10.1016/j.drugpo.2025.104793

André J. McDonald , Alysha Cooper , Amanda Doggett , Jillian Halladay , Kyla Belisario , James MacKillop

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Recreational cannabis legalization (RCL) is being adopted by a growing number of jurisdictions internationally. RCL aims to displace the illegal cannabis market and has the potential to disrupt the medical market, yet few studies have examined these dynamics empirically.

Methods

We used interrupted time series analysis to evaluate whether RCL (legislative passage in October 2017/implementation in October 2018) was associated with changes in quarterly national household expenditures on medical cannabis, illegal cannabis, and all cannabis types combined (licensed, illegal, and medical) in Canada from 2001 to 2023, adjusting for price fluctuations.

Results

When RCL was passed, medical cannabis represented 11.8 % of the market and illegal cannabis 88.2 %. At five years post-RCL implementation, medical cannabis decreased to 3.7 %, illegal cannabis decreased to 24.3 %, and licensed cannabis took over 72.0 % of the market. The overall cannabis market increased in size by 75 % over these 5 years. Illegal cannabis expenditures increased between RCL passage and implementation but decreased immediately post-implementation and had a significant decreasing trend. Medical cannabis had a significant decreasing trend following RCL passage, and to a lesser extent following RCL implementation. Total cannabis expenditures increased immediately following RCL implementation and showed a significant increasing trend over time. Some caution should be used in interpreting these findings given uncertainty in data quality, particularly for illegal cannabis expenditures (and overall expenditures by extension).

Conclusions

Recreational cannabis legalization in Canada appears to be achieving one of its primary goals by displacing the illegal cannabis market, and medical users also appear to be transitioning to the recreational market. However, overall cannabis expenditures have also grown substantially since legalization, which could have adverse implications for public health.

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娱乐性大麻合法化与加拿大大麻医疗、非法和总支出变化的关联

国际上越来越多的司法管辖区正在采用娱乐性大麻合法化（RCL）。RCL旨在取代非法大麻市场，并有可能扰乱医疗市场，但很少有研究对这些动态进行实证研究。方法我们使用中断时间序列分析来评估RCL（2017年10月立法通过/ 2018年10月实施）是否与2001年至2023年加拿大医疗大麻、非法大麻和所有大麻类型（许可、非法和医疗）的季度全国家庭支出变化相关，并根据价格波动进行调整。结果当《国家大麻管制条例》通过时，医用大麻占市场份额的11.8%，非法大麻占88.2%。在《禁售法令》实施五年后，医用大麻减少到3.7%，非法大麻减少到24.3%，持牌大麻占据了72.0%的市场份额。在这五年中，整个大麻市场的规模增加了75%。非法大麻支出在《区域管制法案》通过和实施期间有所增加，但在实施后立即减少，并有显著的下降趋势。医用大麻在禁毒令通过后呈显著下降趋势，在禁毒令实施后呈较小程度下降趋势。大麻总支出在《区域管制细则》实施后立即增加，并随着时间的推移显示出显著的增加趋势。考虑到数据质量的不确定性，在解释这些调查结果时应谨慎一些，特别是关于非法大麻支出（以及总的支出）。结论：加拿大的娱乐性大麻合法化似乎正在取代非法大麻市场，从而实现其主要目标之一，医疗使用者似乎也在向娱乐性大麻市场过渡。然而，自大麻合法化以来，大麻的总体支出也大幅增长，这可能对公众健康产生不利影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Drug Policy SUBSTANCE ABUSE-

CiteScore

7.80

自引率

11.40%

发文量

307

审稿时长

62 days

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Drug Policy provides a forum for the dissemination of current research, reviews, debate, and critical analysis on drug use and drug policy in a global context. It seeks to publish material on the social, political, legal, and health contexts of psychoactive substance use, both licit and illicit. The journal is particularly concerned to explore the effects of drug policy and practice on drug-using behaviour and its health and social consequences. It is the policy of the journal to represent a wide range of material on drug-related matters from around the world.