Pancreatic Cancer in High-Income Asia-Pacific: A Population-Based Study.

Abstract

BackgroundPancreatic cancer places a substantial global health and economic burden. However, the epidemiological characteristics and chronological trends of pancreatic cancer in high-income Asia-Pacific have not been systematically analyzed.MethodsData obtained from the GBD 2021 database were used for this cross-country secondary analysis. We used Joinpoint regression to analyze the temporal trends of pancreatic cancer disease burden in the high-income Asia-Pacific. Age-period-cohort model was used to estimate and describe the impact of age, period, and cohort effects on health outcomes. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used for the projection of pancreatic cancer incidence from 2022 to 2036.ResultsIn high-income Asia-Pacific, the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), mortality rate (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) were estimated to be 11.2 (95% UI, 9.69-12.17), 9.56 (95% UI, 8.34-10.34), and 197.6 (95% UI, 178.87-210.6) per 100 000 population, respectively, in 2021, which were all higher than those in across Asia. From 1990 to 2002, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) trend was rather stable. Instead, the ASIRs trend went up gradually from 2002 to 2011 in both males (APC = + 1.03, 95% CI: 0.85, 1.20) and females (APC = + 1.64, 95% CI: 1.40, 1.89). ASIRs and ASMRs went up considerably with increasing age, especially over 60. The ASIRs in the high-income Asia-Pacific region are predicted to go down in the years ahead, from approximately 12.81 in 2021 to approximately 11.11 in 2036 for males, and from approximately 8.97 in 2021 to approximately 8.42 in 2036 for females.ConclusionA comprehensive upward trend in ASIRs, ASPRs, ASMRs, and ASDRs of pancreatic cancer was observed in the high-income Asia-Pacific between 1990 and 2021. Given the poor prognosis of pancreatic cancer, prevention strategies are paramount, especially for modifiable factors like smoking, alcohol drinking, and obesity.