AT-LSTM-CUSUM Digital Intelligent Model for Seepage Safety Prediction of Concrete Dam

Abstract

Seepage is one of the main causes of dam accidents, characterized by long latency periods and spatiotemporal randomness. In this study, an innovative combined algorithm model (AT-LSTM-CUSUM) is proposed to predict such leakage hazards. First, a long short-term memory (LSTM) network model based on an attention mechanism is established to focus on key influencing factors in predicting the time series data. Following the time series prediction, an improved Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) change-point monitoring algorithm is introduced. Within a sliding window period, a control function collects cumulative residuals, and a threshold test is performed to determine whether a potential hazard trend exists. Using monitoring data from a pressure measuring pipe in a concrete dam as the experimental subject, five related influencing factors were collected (upstream and downstream water levels, temperature, precipitation, and structural aging). These data were fed into the AT-LSTM model for iterative parameter tuning, yielding optimal prediction results. These results were compared with those of the LSTM, GRU, ARIMA, and Prophet models, validating the superior performance of the AT-LSTM model. In addition, by simulating the seepage hazard occurrence process, the change-point monitoring effectiveness of the improved CUSUM algorithm was tested. A parameter sensitivity analysis of the window period and threshold values revealed that the algorithm performed effectively in detecting seepage hazards. The innovative algorithm proposed in this paper exhibits strong early warning capabilities and holds significant value for dam safety monitoring and maintenance.