Between proximity and security: A log-linear choice modeling of displacement risks and residential mobility trade-offs in immigrant Sub-Saharan communities

Abstract

The elusive nature of displacement risks experienced by marginalized communities in rapidly developing economies presents a deepening equity dilemma that has received insufficient scholarly attention. Despite the widespread disruptions to livelihoods and safety in these fast-growing communities, the disproportionate impacts on neighborhood-level relocations – an often-occurring housing tenure dissonance – remains not well understood. Our study attempts to bridge this gap by examining the built environment determinants of residential mobility and the associated displacement risks in historically marginalized immigrant communities in Sub-Saharan Africa, using the Kumasi Metropolitan Area in Ghana as a case study. A mixed-method approach is employed, combining both log-linear regression and exploratory factor analysis techniques to conceptualize place utility attachments while choice-modeling displacement likelihood. Results revealed a dual conundrum in household relocation decisions, diffused between the competing trade-offs of livability and livelihood. While proximity to employment networks in inner suburbs remains the key determinant of housing choice, the insecurity of land tenure in these transitional areas creates an ever-present risk of displacement. Conversely, relocation to more tenure-secure areas often comes at the cost of reduced access to work opportunities, loss of economic stability, and diminished social capital tied to their current location. Also, neighborhood safety and crime-related stress associated with housing had the highest predictive effect on actual relocation decisions and or the likelihood of moving from these communities. The study discusses the implications of these intricate relationships on urban development, gentrification, and inclusive housing, offering empirical insights to guide policy directions for equitable, safer, and sustainable living environments in marginalized communities.