Impact of climate change on the distribution range and niche dynamics of Himalayan Aconites: a highly important medicinal plant species of the higher Himalayan range

Abstract

Alpine vegetation found in mountainous areas is reportedly sensitive to the expected heat caused by climate change. Aconitum species, which is an indicator species for monitoring the signal of climate change, also falls under this range. Aconitum heterophyllum and Aconitum balfourii thrive among diverse plant communities and serve as key species marking the onset of the alpine range. The current study uses the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) program to estimate the geographic distribution of Aconitum taxa for the present and the future (RCPs 2.6–8.5 encompassing 2050). The final model that was obtained had an area under the ROC curve AUC of 0.95, demonstrating the model’s resilience. Species distribution modeling (SDM) toolbox was used to evaluate changes in the habitat appropriateness, area expansion, and contraction based on the MaxEnt model. Future forecasts indicate that the Eastern Himalayas would be a more favorable environment for both Aconitum species when compared to the Western Himalayas. According to our best knowledge, this package was used for the first time in the study to evaluate the dynamics of the climatic niches of two critically endangered Aconitum species for the Indian Himalayan ranges. The climatic niche of this alpine species is expected to shift in the future due to alterations in its habitat regions. The Aconitum niche is in danger under scenarios of future climate change, according to the AUC and Jackknife values. The findings of the current study contribute substantially to understanding how climate change affects the Himalayas and have broad implications for the development of scientifically sound adaptation and mitigation measures, as the major factors influencing its distribution are altitude, snow cover, chilling hours for both seeds and tubers, temperature, and rainfall patterns.