A comparative fuzzy strategic assessment framework for space mission selection at NASA

Abstract

Strategic decision-making in space mission selection is inherently complex, requiring a balance of multiple, often conflicting, quantitative and qualitative factors under uncertainty. This paper introduces a novel fuzzy analytical framework that extends the Strategic Assessment Model (SAM) by incorporating trapezoidal fuzzy numbers to evaluate mission alternatives systematically. By addressing the uncertainty inherent in space exploration planning, this model provides a structured approach to assessing internal, transactional, and contextual factors—marking the first application of such techniques in NASA's mission selection process. The framework's application to Mars, lunar, and solar system exploration missions demonstrates its ability to provide robust and data-driven insights. The findings reveal that solar system exploration consistently emerges as the most resilient option, achieving a superior Mission Selection Score across diverse scenarios. Comprehensive sensitivity analysis further underscores the framework's reliability, showing that solar system exploration remains the optimal choice in approximately 90 % of cases despite variations in uncertainty levels. This research significantly advances the field of strategic space mission assessment by offering a rigorous, adaptable decision-support tool for decision-makers. It enhances NASA's capability to navigate the complexities of mission planning, ensuring optimal allocation of resources in an era of increasing privatization and international collaboration in space exploration. The proposed fuzzy SAM approach establishes a new benchmark for multi-criteria decision-making under uncertainty, paving the way for future applications in space policy, mission prioritization, and beyond.