Prevalence of Polypharmacy in Chinese Community-Dwelling Older Adults and Forecast by 2035: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

IF 2.4 4区医学 Q3 PHARMACOLOGY & PHARMACY

Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI:10.1002/pds.70133

Hui Xie, Ruo Jiang, Li Luo, Heqi Sun

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose: We aimed to derive a pooled polypharmacy prevalence estimate and forecast the total polypharmacy cases by 2035 in Chinese community-dwelling older adults.

Methods: We searched for studies in three databases (CNKI, Scopus and PubMed). We selected studies according to pre-defined inclusion and exclusion criteria. We assessed study quality using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Polypharmacy in our study was defined as the concurrent use of at least five different medications. Pooled prevalence was estimated overall and by regions, time periods, and other important factors. We fitted Bayesian random-effects logit models to synthesize single studies and reported a 95% uncertainty interval (95UI).

Results: A total of 25 studies were finally included. The pooled polypharmacy prevalence was estimated to be 31.04% (95UI: 18.16 ~ 47.66). The pooled prevalence was highest in the east region (37.98%, 95UI: 21.92 ~ 57.69), followed by the middle region (33.53%, 95UI: 4.89 ~ 84.46) and the west region (25.85%, 95UI: 8.78 ~ 50.74). The pooled prevalence was 31.10% (95UI: 15.54 ~ 52.72) in the latest 5 years (2017-2021) and 30.88% (95UI: 11.53 ~ 60.56) in the beyond latest 5 years (2005-2016). The per cent change annualized in the forecasted total polypharmacy cases from 2022 to 2035 was estimated to be 3.69%, with the highest total cases forecasted to be 131.7 million (95UI: 77.1 ~ 202.2) in 2035.

Conclusions: Our study suggests that polypharmacy is notably prevalent in Chinese community-dwelling older adults, highlighting the need for the development and delivery of community-based interventions targeted at this population.

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中国社区老年人综合用药的患病率及2035年预测：一项系统回顾和荟萃分析。

目的：我们的目的是得出一个综合的多药患病率估计，并预测到2035年中国社区居住的老年人多药病例总数。方法：在CNKI、Scopus和PubMed三个数据库中检索相关研究。我们根据预先定义的纳入和排除标准选择研究。我们使用改良的纽卡斯尔-渥太华量表评估研究质量。在我们的研究中，多重用药被定义为同时使用至少五种不同的药物。汇总流行率总体估计，并按区域、时间段和其他重要因素进行估计。我们拟合贝叶斯随机效应logit模型来综合单个研究，并报告了95%的不确定性区间（95UI）。结果：最终纳入25项研究。合并多药患病率为31.04% （95UI: 18.16 ~ 47.66）。总患病率以东部地区最高（37.98%,95UI: 21.92 ~ 57.69），其次为中部地区（33.53%,95UI: 4.89 ~ 84.46）和西部地区（25.85%,95UI: 8.78 ~ 50.74）。最近5年（2017-2021年）总患病率为31.10% (95UI: 15.54 ~ 52.72)，最近5年（2005-2016年）总患病率为30.88% （95UI: 11.53 ~ 60.56）。预测2022 - 2035年综合用药总例数年化变化率为3.69%，预测2035年综合用药总例数最高为1.317亿例（95UI: 77.1 ~ 202.2）。结论：我们的研究表明，多种用药在中国社区居住的老年人中非常普遍，这突出了针对这一人群开发和提供基于社区的干预措施的必要性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety 医学-药学

CiteScore

4.80

自引率

7.70%

发文量

173

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： The aim of Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety is to provide an international forum for the communication and evaluation of data, methods and opinion in the discipline of pharmacoepidemiology. The Journal publishes peer-reviewed reports of original research, invited reviews and a variety of guest editorials and commentaries embracing scientific, medical, statistical, legal and economic aspects of pharmacoepidemiology and post-marketing surveillance of drug safety. Appropriate material in these categories may also be considered for publication as a Brief Report. Particular areas of interest include: design, analysis, results, and interpretation of studies looking at the benefit or safety of specific pharmaceuticals, biologics, or medical devices, including studies in pharmacovigilance, postmarketing surveillance, pharmacoeconomics, patient safety, molecular pharmacoepidemiology, or any other study within the broad field of pharmacoepidemiology; comparative effectiveness research relating to pharmaceuticals, biologics, and medical devices. Comparative effectiveness research is the generation and synthesis of evidence that compares the benefits and harms of alternative methods to prevent, diagnose, treat, and monitor a clinical condition, as these methods are truly used in the real world; methodologic contributions of relevance to pharmacoepidemiology, whether original contributions, reviews of existing methods, or tutorials for how to apply the methods of pharmacoepidemiology; assessments of harm versus benefit in drug therapy; patterns of drug utilization; relationships between pharmacoepidemiology and the formulation and interpretation of regulatory guidelines; evaluations of risk management plans and programmes relating to pharmaceuticals, biologics and medical devices.