Assessment of seismic potential impacts of an Mw 8.4 hypothetical earthquake in central Nepal province

Abstract

The national capital of Nepal is situated on a lacustrine sediment basin. The country has had major seismic events that have resulted in significant damage to structures, human casualties, and substantial economic losses. Mitigating seismic risk is a challenging problem in Nepal due to poor construction practices, no enforcement of seismic safety guidelines, and a lack of awareness in the public. Seismic risk mitigation is essential in improving seismic resistance of buildings, and in reducing the economic loss and casualties in the forthcoming seismic events. The scientific results of earthquake loss estimation studies will lead to improve the policies towards seismic resilience.

The current research uses the SELENA (Seismic Loss Estimation using a Logic Tree Approach) tool to explore the seismic damage to buildings, human loss, and seismic risk in the 11 districts due to a scenario earthquake. The seismic risk of the study region due to the scenario earthquake is determined through fragility functions. The expected economic losses vary from 0.1 to 0.6 million dollars, and the possible casualties range from 1000 to 5000. The outcome of the study will be helpful for the local authorities and policymakers to take mitigation measures for the existing buildings.