A Task-Oriented Spatial Graph Structure Learning Method for Traffic Forecasting

Abstract

Traffic forecasting is the foundation of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). In recent, graph neural networks (GNNs) have successfully captured spatial-temporal dependencies to forecast traffic conditions by transforming traffic data in the graph domain. Nevertheless, the existing methods focus only on learning informative graph representations and fail to model informative graph structures, which hinders the capture of dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies caused by dynamic factors such as weather, accidents, and special events. In this paper, we propose a novel task-oriented Spatial Graph Structure Learning (SGSL) method, which aims to capture dynamic dependencies by jointly learning graph structures and graph representations. Compared to methods that use spectral graph representations, we exploit a learnable spatial graph to effectively model dynamic dependencies in traffic data. Moreover, we directly define graph convolutions on spatial relations to specify different edge weights when aggregating the information of spatial neighbours. Thus, the graph structure alterations, i.e., the relation changes, and the time-varying weights of relations can be encapsulated, thereby effectively representing dynamic dependencies. The gradient descent strategy is introduced to periodically learn a spatial graph through joint optimization with a newly designed deep graph learning model named GAT-nLSTM. In this manner, the intrinsic behaviours of nodes are learned to capture correlations across periods. Notably, the optimization process is performed under the traffic forecasting constraint to ensure that the learned spatial graph is specific to this task. Compared with those of state-of-the-art baselines, the experimental results obtained on real-world traffic datasets show significant improvement, which verifies the superiority of the proposed SGSL.