Practical approach to Hazard-Consistent fragility curve estimates using Bayesian updating

IF 1.9 3区 工程技术 Q1 NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
Nevena Šipčić , Pablo García de Quevedo Iñarritu , Mohsen Kohrangi , Dimitrios Vamvatsikos , Paolo Bazzurro
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Seismic fragility curves provide the probability of exceedance of a given damage state, should different levels of ground motion intensity be experienced at the site where the structure, or component, is located. Such curves are often derived via multiple nonlinear response history analyses (NLRHA) using sets of “suitable” ground motions that, in line with the best practice, should be consistent with the seismic hazard at the site. Based on the selected sets of records, one can estimate fragility functions that are often assumed to follow a lognormal distribution defined by two parameters, i.e., the logarithmic mean (µ) and the logarithmic standard deviation (β). Our focus is on estimating them using a state-of-the-art approach that involves hazard-consistent record selection via Conditional Spectrum and multiple stripe analysis. However, this approach usually requires many NLRHAs, with high computational costs, especially for the complex structural models typical of the nuclear industry. This study investigates the optimal number of ground motions and intensity levels required to keep the computational burden acceptable without compromising accuracy. To do so, we adopt a Bayesian framework with Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and Metropolis–Hasting sampling. Our findings show that this approach effectively helps analysts best allocate computational resources while ensuring acceptable accuracy in estimating the probability of reaching or exceeding the considered damage states.
用贝叶斯更新估计危险一致脆弱性曲线的实用方法
地震易损性曲线提供了超出给定破坏状态的概率,如果在结构或部件所在的地点经历不同程度的地面运动强度。这些曲线通常是通过多重非线性响应历史分析(NLRHA)得出的,使用一系列“合适的”地面运动,符合最佳实践,应该与现场的地震危险性相一致。根据所选的记录集,可以估计脆弱性函数,脆弱性函数通常被假设遵循由两个参数定义的对数正态分布,即对数平均值(µ)和对数标准差(β)。我们的重点是使用最先进的方法来评估它们,包括通过条件谱和多条带分析来选择危险一致的记录。然而,这种方法通常需要许多nlrha,计算成本高,特别是对于核工业中典型的复杂结构模型。本研究探讨了在不影响精度的情况下保持可接受的计算负担所需的最佳地面运动次数和强度水平。为此,我们采用贝叶斯框架与马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗模拟和大都会-哈斯汀采样。我们的研究结果表明,这种方法有效地帮助分析人员最好地分配计算资源,同时确保在估计达到或超过所考虑的损伤状态的概率时可接受的准确性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Nuclear Engineering and Design
Nuclear Engineering and Design 工程技术-核科学技术
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
11.80%
发文量
377
审稿时长
5 months
期刊介绍: Nuclear Engineering and Design covers the wide range of disciplines involved in the engineering, design, safety and construction of nuclear fission reactors. The Editors welcome papers both on applied and innovative aspects and developments in nuclear science and technology. Fundamentals of Reactor Design include: • Thermal-Hydraulics and Core Physics • Safety Analysis, Risk Assessment (PSA) • Structural and Mechanical Engineering • Materials Science • Fuel Behavior and Design • Structural Plant Design • Engineering of Reactor Components • Experiments Aspects beyond fundamentals of Reactor Design covered: • Accident Mitigation Measures • Reactor Control Systems • Licensing Issues • Safeguard Engineering • Economy of Plants • Reprocessing / Waste Disposal • Applications of Nuclear Energy • Maintenance • Decommissioning Papers on new reactor ideas and developments (Generation IV reactors) such as inherently safe modular HTRs, High Performance LWRs/HWRs and LMFBs/GFR will be considered; Actinide Burners, Accelerator Driven Systems, Energy Amplifiers and other special designs of power and research reactors and their applications are also encouraged.
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