Development of a cryptocurrency price prediction model: leveraging GRU and LSTM for Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum.

IF 3.5 4区 计算机科学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
PeerJ Computer Science Pub Date : 2025-03-17 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.7717/peerj-cs.2675
Ramneet Kaur, Mudita Uppal, Deepali Gupta, Sapna Juneja, Syed Yasser Arafat, Junaid Rashid, Jungeun Kim, Roobaea Alroobaea
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Cryptocurrency represents a form of asset that has arisen from the progress of financial technology, presenting significant prospects for scholarly investigations. The ability to anticipate cryptocurrency prices with extreme accuracy is very desirable to researchers and investors. However, time-series data presents significant challenges due to the nonlinear nature of the cryptocurrency market, complicating precise price predictions. Several studies have explored cryptocurrency price prediction using various deep learning (DL) algorithms. Three leading cryptocurrencies, determined by market capitalization, Ethereum (ETH), Bitcoin (BTC), and Litecoin (LTC), are examined for exchange rate predictions in this study. Two categories of recurrent neural networks (RNNs), specifically long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU), are employed. Four performance metrics are selected to evaluate the prediction accuracy namely mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean squared error (RMSE) for three cryptocurrencies which demonstrates that GRU model outperforms LSTM. The GRU model was implemented as a two-layer deep learning network, optimized using the Adam optimizer with a dropout rate of 0.2 to prevent overfitting. The model was trained using normalized historical price data sourced from CryptoDataDownload, with an 80:20 train-test split. In this work, GRU qualifies as the best algorithm for developing a cryptocurrency price prediction model. MAPE values for BTC, LTC and ETH are 0.03540, 0.08703 and 0.04415, respectively, which indicate that GRU offers the most accurate forecasts as compared to LSTM. These prediction models are valuable for traders and investors, offering accurate cryptocurrency price predictions. Future studies should also consider additional variables, such as social media trends and trade volumes that may impact cryptocurrency pricing.

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来源期刊
PeerJ Computer Science
PeerJ Computer Science Computer Science-General Computer Science
CiteScore
6.10
自引率
5.30%
发文量
332
审稿时长
10 weeks
期刊介绍: PeerJ Computer Science is the new open access journal covering all subject areas in computer science, with the backing of a prestigious advisory board and more than 300 academic editors.
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