The impact of climate change on agriculture in Assam: A statistical analysis of rising temperature and changing precipitation patterns

Abstract

This study examines how climate change, particularly rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns, affects agricultural productivity in Assam, India. Focusing on rice, tea and mustard—three of the state’s most important crops—this research analyses data from 2000 to 2022 using multiple linear regression (MLR) to evaluate the relationship between climatic factors and crop yields. The results show that for every 1 °C increase in temperature, rice yields decline by approximately 0.112 tons/ha (p = 0.002, R² = 0.62), while tea and mustard yields decrease by 0.087 tons/ha (p = 0.005, R² = 0.54) and 0.095 tons/ha (p = 0.003, R² = 0.48), respectively. Rainfall positively influences yields up to optimal thresholds—280 mm for rice, 260 mm for tea and 210 mm for mustard—beyond which excess rainfall leads to reduced productivity, notably in rice due to waterlogging. These findings underscore the high vulnerability of Assam’s rain-fed agriculture to climatic variability and stress the urgent need for adaptive measures. Policy recommendations include developing and disseminating heat- and drought-resistant crop varieties, expanding irrigation infrastructure and adopting precision farming technologies and implementing crop insurance schemes to buffer farmers against climatic risks. By integrating climatic, agronomic and socio-economic factors, this study not only fills gaps in the existing literature but also offers actionable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in Assam and other climate-sensitive regions.