The effectiveness of the states’ crisis response policies: Survival analysis on the COVID-19 transmission suppression in the United States

IF 1.7 Q3 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES
Hanvit Kim, Kyungmin Lee, Jungwon Yeo
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective

This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of various COVID-19 response policies in the United Sates that facilitated rapid virus transmission suppression and promoted quick return to normalcy during the first three years of the pandemic.

Method

We constructed comprehensive and unique time-to-event panel data that tracks the timeline of all policy implementations, and transmission waves, specifically measuring the duration from peak transmission to the desired suppression level, over 157 weeks. We then conducted a survival analysis to estimate the effectiveness of COVID-19 response policies in relation to the virus transmission dynamics. Our analysis focuses on the ten most populous U.S. states, representing diverse geographic, cultural, and political landscapes across the country. The survival analysis leverages the extensive time-to-event panel data collected from multiple sources.

Results

Our findings indicate that not all policies were equally effective in facilitating rapid transmission and promoting swift suppression return to normalcy. Containment or closure policies, such as school closures and stay-at-home orders, are associated with a shorter duration for returning to normalcy, highlighting their effectiveness in curbing COVID-19 transmission. In contrast, health system policies and vaccine policies showed mixed results.

Conclusion

The findings from our survival analysis of the novel data set provide practical insights for prioritizing policy measures among various options to effectively and timely suppress the transmission of highly contagious diseases. These insights can also enhance resource utilization and allocation within and across public health systems, while minimizing restrictions on people’s daily lives.
各州危机应对政策的有效性:美国 COVID-19 传播抑制的生存分析
目的本研究旨在评估美国各种COVID-19应对政策的有效性,这些政策有助于在大流行的前三年快速抑制病毒传播并促进迅速恢复正常。我们构建了全面而独特的事件时间面板数据,跟踪所有政策实施的时间表,以及传播波,特别是测量从峰值传播到期望抑制水平的持续时间,超过157周。然后,我们进行了生存分析,以评估COVID-19应对政策与病毒传播动态相关的有效性。我们的分析集中在美国人口最多的十个州,代表了全国不同的地理、文化和政治景观。生存分析利用从多个来源收集的大量事件时间面板数据。结果并非所有政策在促进快速传播和促进迅速抑制恢复正常方面都同样有效。封锁或关闭政策,如学校关闭和居家令,与恢复正常所需的时间较短有关,这突显了它们在遏制COVID-19传播方面的有效性。相比之下,卫生系统政策和疫苗政策的结果喜忧参半。结论我们对新数据集的生存分析结果为在各种选择中优先考虑政策措施以有效及时地抑制高传染性疾病的传播提供了实用的见解。这些见解还可以加强公共卫生系统内部和整个系统的资源利用和分配,同时最大限度地减少对人们日常生活的限制。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Health Policy Open
Health Policy Open Medicine-Health Policy
CiteScore
3.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
21
审稿时长
40 weeks
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