Vegetation dynamics in Mainland Southeast Asia: Climate and anthropogenic influences

Abstract

Understanding vegetation dynamics and their influencing factors is essential to regional sustainable development and ecological security. However, large-scale and long-term vegetation changes and attribution pose challenges due to temporal and quality discrepancies in multi-source remote sensing data. This study developed a research framework based on multi-source data integration and conducted a case study in Mainland Southeast Asia. By integrating Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data, we generated a long-term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset for 1982–2023. We used trend test, partial correlation analysis, and linear regression analysis to explore spatiotemporal vegetation dynamics and their links to climate and human activities. The results show: (1) the multi-year average NDVI of Mainland Southeast Asia is 0.797, with 85 % of the area exceeding 0.7, indicating robust vegetation growth across the region. The regional NDVI shows a significant increasing trend in 1982–2023, with a growth rate of 0.02 per decade. (2) The impact of rising temperatures on vegetation in Mainland Southeast Asia is mainly positive, increasing NDVI in 81 % of the area. Whereas the impact of reduced precipitation on vegetation is negligible. (3) In the quantitative attribution, temperature changes have the largest contribution to NDVI changes, contributing 70 % (0.049) to regional NDVI changes (0.056) and dominating 40 % of the area. Human activities contribute 20 % (0.014) and dominate 33 % of the area. Precipitation changes contribute 10 % (–0.007) and dominate about 5 % of the area. This study offers scientific insights and data support for understanding vegetation changes and sustainable development in Mainland Southeast Asia.