Academic Aspirations of 12th Grade Students in the United States: Place-Based Diminished Returns of Parental Education in Rural Areas.

Abstract

Background: The Motivational Theory of Life-Span Development suggests that individual aspirations are shaped by both internal and external resources. Parental education is a key determinant of educational aspirations, yet its effects may vary by geographic location, demonstrating spatial patterns of Minorities' Diminished Returns (MDRs).

Objectives: This study examines the association between parental education and aspirations for graduate or professional education among non-Latino White adolescents, with a specific focus on urban-suburban versus rural differences.

Methods: Using data from the 12th-grade cohort of the Monitoring the Future (MTF) 2024 survey, we conducted multivariate analyses to assess the relationship between parental education and aspirations for graduate or professional education. We further examined whether this association was moderated by geographic location (urban-suburban vs. rural) to identify place-based MDRs.

Results: Higher parental education was associated with greater aspirations for advanced education; however, this effect was weaker in rural areas compared to urban and suburban settings. These findings highlight that even among non-Latino White adolescents, rural residence diminishes the benefits of socioeconomic resources, providing evidence of place-based MDRs.

Conclusion: Rural residents face a dual disadvantage-both lower socioeconomic status and weaker returns on those resources-necessitating targeted interventions beyond resource allocation. To address disparities in educational aspirations in rural areas, policymakers should focus on improving equitable access to educational opportunities and ensuring that these resources translate into comparable outcomes across different social and geographic contexts.