Mara A Schonberg, Emily A Wolfson, A Heather Eliassen, Bernard A Rosner, Andrea Z LaCroix, Rebecca A Nelson, Rowan T Chlebowski, Long H Ngo
{"title":"Population attributable risk of a competing-risk model for breast cancer and non-breast cancer death among women ≥ 65 years.","authors":"Mara A Schonberg, Emily A Wolfson, A Heather Eliassen, Bernard A Rosner, Andrea Z LaCroix, Rebecca A Nelson, Rowan T Chlebowski, Long H Ngo","doi":"10.1007/s10549-025-07683-w","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Purpose: </strong>To inform decision making around mammography-screening frequency and cessation, we previously used Fine-Gray competing-risk regression to develop and validate a model to estimate older women's 10-year risk of breast cancer and their competing risk of non-breast cancer (non-BC) death. Here, we aimed to understand the amount of incident breast cancer and non-BC death risk explained by our model among women ≥ 65y.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We included women ≥ 65y who completed the 2004 Nurses' Health Study questionnaire (NHS, n = 59,662) or who participated in the Women's Health Initiative-Extension Study (WHI-ES, n = 82,528). We calculated our model's full and risk factor-specific population attributable risk (PAR%) for incident breast cancer and non-BC death.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Mean age of the NHS participants was 73.5y (SD 5.2); 3.1% were diagnosed with breast cancer and 26.1% experienced non-BC death within 10 years. Mean age of WHI-ES participants was 73.6y (SD 5.4); 4.2% were diagnosed with breast cancer and 17.7% experienced non-BC death within 10 years. The full-model PAR% for breast cancer was 58.8% (22.7-80.6) in NHS and 54.8% (24.8-75.2%) in WHI-ES. Modifiable risk factors explained approximately 1/3 of breast cancer risk; BMI ≥ 30 had a PAR% of 6.5% (3.1-9.9%) in NHS and 12.2% (8.5-16.0%) in WHI-ES. For non-BC death, the full-model PAR% was 94.2% (91.4-96.1%) in NHS and 86.2% (80.9-90.0%) in WHI-ES.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Our competing-risk model explained the majority of breast cancers and non-BC deaths in women ≥ 65y, and we identified risk factors (e.g., elevated BMI) that may be targeted to reduce the burden of breast cancer in older women.</p>","PeriodicalId":9133,"journal":{"name":"Breast Cancer Research and Treatment","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Breast Cancer Research and Treatment","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10549-025-07683-w","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ONCOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Purpose: To inform decision making around mammography-screening frequency and cessation, we previously used Fine-Gray competing-risk regression to develop and validate a model to estimate older women's 10-year risk of breast cancer and their competing risk of non-breast cancer (non-BC) death. Here, we aimed to understand the amount of incident breast cancer and non-BC death risk explained by our model among women ≥ 65y.
Methods: We included women ≥ 65y who completed the 2004 Nurses' Health Study questionnaire (NHS, n = 59,662) or who participated in the Women's Health Initiative-Extension Study (WHI-ES, n = 82,528). We calculated our model's full and risk factor-specific population attributable risk (PAR%) for incident breast cancer and non-BC death.
Results: Mean age of the NHS participants was 73.5y (SD 5.2); 3.1% were diagnosed with breast cancer and 26.1% experienced non-BC death within 10 years. Mean age of WHI-ES participants was 73.6y (SD 5.4); 4.2% were diagnosed with breast cancer and 17.7% experienced non-BC death within 10 years. The full-model PAR% for breast cancer was 58.8% (22.7-80.6) in NHS and 54.8% (24.8-75.2%) in WHI-ES. Modifiable risk factors explained approximately 1/3 of breast cancer risk; BMI ≥ 30 had a PAR% of 6.5% (3.1-9.9%) in NHS and 12.2% (8.5-16.0%) in WHI-ES. For non-BC death, the full-model PAR% was 94.2% (91.4-96.1%) in NHS and 86.2% (80.9-90.0%) in WHI-ES.
Conclusions: Our competing-risk model explained the majority of breast cancers and non-BC deaths in women ≥ 65y, and we identified risk factors (e.g., elevated BMI) that may be targeted to reduce the burden of breast cancer in older women.
期刊介绍:
Breast Cancer Research and Treatment provides the surgeon, radiotherapist, medical oncologist, endocrinologist, epidemiologist, immunologist or cell biologist investigating problems in breast cancer a single forum for communication. The journal creates a "market place" for breast cancer topics which cuts across all the usual lines of disciplines, providing a site for presenting pertinent investigations, and for discussing critical questions relevant to the entire field. It seeks to develop a new focus and new perspectives for all those concerned with breast cancer.