Developing cholera outbreak forecasting through qualitative dynamics: Insights into Malawi case study

Abstract

Cholera, an acute diarrheal disease, is a serious concern in developing and underdeveloped areas. A qualitative understanding of cholera epidemics aims to foresee transmission patterns based on reported data and mechanistic models. The mechanistic model is a crucial tool for capturing the dynamics of disease transmission and population spread. However, using real-time cholera cases is essential for forecasting the transmission trend. This prospective study seeks to furnish insights into transmission trends through qualitative dynamics followed by machine learning-based forecasting. The Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach is employed to calibrate the proposed mechanistic model. We identify critical parameters that illustrate the disease’s dynamics using partial rank correlation coefficient-based sensitivity analysis. The basic reproduction number as a crucial threshold measures asymptotic dynamics. Furthermore, forward bifurcation directs the stability of the infection state, and Hopf bifurcation suggests that trends in transmission may become unpredictable as societal disinfection rates rise. Further, we develop epidemic-informed machine learning models by incorporating mechanistic cholera dynamics into autoregressive integrated moving averages and autoregressive neural networks. We forecast short-term future cholera cases in Malawi by implementing the proposed epidemic-informed machine learning models to support this. We assert that integrating temporal dynamics into the machine learning models can enhance the capabilities of cholera forecasting models. The execution of this mechanism can significantly influence future trends in cholera transmission. This evolving approach can also be beneficial for policymakers to interpret and respond to potential disease systems. Moreover, our methodology is replicable and adaptable, encouraging future research on disease dynamics.