Integrated outcomes of large-scale ecological restoration projects on biodiversity–eco-environment–society in China

Abstract

China has executed large-scale ecological restoration projects (ERPs) to meet the goals of environmental protection and economic development. Yet, the integrated outcomes of these projects on the biodiversity–eco-environment–society dimensions remain unclear, but when available could be insightful for adaptation and adjustments, particularly in this United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030). Based on multi-source data, we identified the categories and quantities of large-scale ERP implementation in the county-level. By comparing the time-series multiple factors of implemented vs unimplemented counties, we quantify the contributions and compare the relative effects of up to six different ERPs. Combining random forest, spatial autocorrelation, and network analysis, we explore the key factors that affect the contributions of ERPs. Here, we show that the triple dimensions in the low ERP group (regions implementing 0–2 projects) produced better outcomes than the high ERP group (regions implementing 3–5 projects) in relatively developed regions, while the high ERP group has more gains than the low ERP group in relatively less-developed regions. Notably, regional characteristics and different social assets mediate the ERP contributions, while human capital and financial capital have important roles. Overall, the ERPs generated positive contributions and could increase the network stability of multi-dimensions in relatively less-developed regions, but it may lead to imbalances in some factors (i.e., mammal species conservation, and human capital). To continue to minimize the negative effects from past, and to improve the returns of ERP policy and investments, more timely and adaptive management of ERPs are needed, especially in relatively less-developed regions.