A novel method for analyzing financial market efficiency through fuzzy set theory

IF 7.4 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2025.107243

Abolfazl Askari, Ehsan Hajizadeh

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Abstract

This paper introduces the Fuzzy Market Inefficiency Measure (FMIM), a novel approach for evaluating financial market efficiency by leveraging fuzzy set theory. FMIM addresses limitations in traditional metrics by modeling inefficiency as a triangular fuzzy number, capturing the inherent uncertainties and non-linear dynamics of financial markets. The methodology incorporates fuzzy regression with triangular membership functions and employs a straightforward optimization framework for parameter estimation. Empirical analysis across diverse asset classes—including equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies—demonstrates FMIM's robustness, particularly during periods of heightened market uncertainty, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. FMIM not only detects pronounced inefficiencies during turbulence but also provides nuanced insights into subtle variations under stable conditions. By introducing a flexible and adaptive framework, FMIM offers researchers, analysts, and policymakers a powerful tool for advancing the understanding of inefficiency dynamics in complex financial environments.

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来源期刊

Finance Research Letters BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.10

自引率

14.40%

发文量

863

期刊介绍： Finance Research Letters welcomes submissions across all areas of finance, aiming for rapid publication of significant new findings. The journal particularly encourages papers that provide insight into the replicability of established results, examine the cross-national applicability of previous findings, challenge existing methodologies, or demonstrate methodological contingencies. Papers are invited in the following areas: Actuarial studies Alternative investments Asset Pricing Bankruptcy and liquidation Banks and other Depository Institutions Behavioral and experimental finance Bibliometric and Scientometric studies of finance Capital budgeting and corporate investment Capital markets and accounting Capital structure and payout policy Commodities Contagion, crises and interdependence Corporate governance Credit and fixed income markets and instruments Derivatives Emerging markets Energy Finance and Energy Markets Financial Econometrics Financial History Financial intermediation and money markets Financial markets and marketplaces Financial Mathematics and Econophysics Financial Regulation and Law Forecasting Frontier market studies International Finance Market efficiency, event studies Mergers, acquisitions and the market for corporate control Micro Finance Institutions Microstructure Non-bank Financial Institutions Personal Finance Portfolio choice and investing Real estate finance and investing Risk SME, Family and Entrepreneurial Finance