Study on the Construction of Infection Risk Prediction Model for Central Venous Catheterisation in PICU and Preventive Measures.

Abstract

Aim(s): To analyse the risk factors for central venous catheter-related infections in Paediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) patients, construct a risk prediction model and propose preventive strategies to reduce infection rates and improve patient outcomes.

Design: A retrospective cohort study was conducted to identify risk factors and develop a predictive model for central venous catheter-associated infections in PICU patients.

Methods: Clinical data from 312 PICU patients with central venous catheters hospitalised between September 2020 and August 2022 were retrospectively analysed. Patients were divided into an infection group (55 cases) and a no-infection group (257 cases). Univariate analysis identified potential risk factors, and multivariate logistic regression was used to construct a predictive model. The model's performance was evaluated using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves and decision curve analysis.

Results: The incidence of central venous catheter-related infections in PICU patients was 17.26%. Prolonged catheter retention and repeated catheterisation were identified as independent risk factors, while heparin sealing and increased frequency of auxiliary material changes were protective factors. The predictive model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.793, demonstrating good accuracy and clinical utility.

Conclusion: The risk prediction model for central venous catheter-associated infections in PICU patients is simple, accurate and clinically valuable. It supports early identification of high-risk patients and informs targeted preventive measures to reduce infection rates and improve patient outcomes.