The Global and Regional Burden of Gallbladder and Biliary Tract Cancer and Attributable Risk Factors: Trends and Predictions

IF 6 2区医学 Q1 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

Liver International Pub Date : 2025-03-21 DOI:10.1111/liv.70025

Shuping Qiu, Wanting Zeng, Jilin Zhang, Jianfeng Xie, Xiaoping Chen

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) is a serious disease burden. A comprehensive assessment of the disease burden is essential for improving prevention and treatment strategies.

Methods

The estimated annual percentage change, Joinpoint regression analysis and age-period-cohort model (APCM) were used to comprehensively evaluate the current status and trend of GBTC burden from 1990 to 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease Study. From the perspective of deep learning, a hierarchical weighted long short-term memory network model (SW-LSTM) is proposed for trend prediction to overcome the shortcomings of traditional models.

Results

The global GBTC burden increased non-linearly with age, which was higher in women than in men. With the increase of SDI, the gender difference showed a decreasing trend. Significant period and cohort effects were observed for the indicators in the remaining regions except for some indicators in the low-and low-middle-SDI regions. Age-standardised indicators in the high, high-middle and middle SDI regions showed a downward trend, while the remaining regions showed an upward trend. The proportion of age-standardised mortality rate attributable to high BMI increased with the increase of SDI. The prediction results showed that the SW-LSTM model outperformed the APCM and ARIMA models in prediction accuracy.

Conclusions

The SW-LSTM model proposed in this paper can provide more accurate prediction information to assist in the development of more targeted prevention strategies. In view of the impact of GBTC on global health, especially among women and the elderly, effective measures should be taken to reverse the increasing trend of GBTC.

查看原文本刊更多论文

胆囊和胆道癌的全球和地区负担及归因危险因素：趋势和预测。

背景：胆囊胆道癌是一种严重的疾病负担。全面评估疾病负担对于改进预防和治疗战略至关重要。方法：采用估计年百分比变化、Joinpoint回归分析和年龄-时期-队列模型（APCM）综合评价1990 - 2021年全球疾病负担研究中GBTC负担的现状和趋势。从深度学习的角度出发，克服传统模型的不足，提出了一种分层加权长短期记忆网络模型（SW-LSTM）进行趋势预测。结果：全球GBTC负担随年龄呈非线性增长，女性高于男性。随着SDI的增加，性别差异呈减小趋势。除了低sdi和中低sdi地区的一些指标外，其余地区的指标均观察到显著的时期和队列效应。高、中高、中等SDI区域的年龄标准化指标呈下降趋势，其余区域呈上升趋势。高BMI导致的年龄标准化死亡率比例随着SDI的增加而增加。预测结果表明，SW-LSTM模型在预测精度上优于APCM和ARIMA模型。结论：本文提出的SW-LSTM模型可以提供更准确的预测信息，有助于制定更有针对性的预防策略。鉴于GBTC对全球健康的影响，特别是对妇女和老年人的影响，应采取有效措施扭转GBTC增加的趋势。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Liver International 医学-胃肠肝病学

CiteScore

13.90

自引率

4.50%

发文量

348

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Liver International promotes all aspects of the science of hepatology from basic research to applied clinical studies. Providing an international forum for the publication of high-quality original research in hepatology, it is an essential resource for everyone working on normal and abnormal structure and function in the liver and its constituent cells, including clinicians and basic scientists involved in the multi-disciplinary field of hepatology. The journal welcomes articles from all fields of hepatology, which may be published as original articles, brief definitive reports, reviews, mini-reviews, images in hepatology and letters to the Editor.