An optimal network that promotes the spread of an advantageous variant in an SIR epidemic

IF 1.9 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY
Samuel Lopez , Natalia L. Komarova
{"title":"An optimal network that promotes the spread of an advantageous variant in an SIR epidemic","authors":"Samuel Lopez ,&nbsp;Natalia L. Komarova","doi":"10.1016/j.jtbi.2025.112095","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the course of epidemics, the pathogen may mutate to acquire a higher fitness. At the same time, such a mutant is automatically in an unfavorable position because the resident virus has a head start in accessing the pool of susceptible individuals. We considered a class of tunable small-world networks, where a parameter, <span><math><mi>p</mi></math></span> (the rewiring probability), characterizes the prevalence of non-local connections, and we asked, whether the underlying network can influence the fate of a mutant virus. Under an SIR model, we considered two measures of mutant success: the expected height of the peak of mutant infected individuals, and the total number of recovered from mutant individuals at the end of the epidemic. Using these measures, we have found the existence of an optimal (for an advantageous mutant virus) rewiring probability that promotes a larger infected maximum and a larger total recovered population corresponding to the advantageous pathogen strain. This optimal rewiring probability decreases as mean degree and the infectivity of the wild type are increased, and it increases with the mutant advantage. The non-monotonic behavior of the advantageous mutant as a function of rewiring probability may shed light into some of the complex patterns in the size of mutant peaks experienced by different countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":54763,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Theoretical Biology","volume":"605 ","pages":"Article 112095"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Theoretical Biology","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002251932500061X","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

In the course of epidemics, the pathogen may mutate to acquire a higher fitness. At the same time, such a mutant is automatically in an unfavorable position because the resident virus has a head start in accessing the pool of susceptible individuals. We considered a class of tunable small-world networks, where a parameter, p (the rewiring probability), characterizes the prevalence of non-local connections, and we asked, whether the underlying network can influence the fate of a mutant virus. Under an SIR model, we considered two measures of mutant success: the expected height of the peak of mutant infected individuals, and the total number of recovered from mutant individuals at the end of the epidemic. Using these measures, we have found the existence of an optimal (for an advantageous mutant virus) rewiring probability that promotes a larger infected maximum and a larger total recovered population corresponding to the advantageous pathogen strain. This optimal rewiring probability decreases as mean degree and the infectivity of the wild type are increased, and it increases with the mutant advantage. The non-monotonic behavior of the advantageous mutant as a function of rewiring probability may shed light into some of the complex patterns in the size of mutant peaks experienced by different countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
5.00%
发文量
218
审稿时长
51 days
期刊介绍: The Journal of Theoretical Biology is the leading forum for theoretical perspectives that give insight into biological processes. It covers a very wide range of topics and is of interest to biologists in many areas of research, including: • Brain and Neuroscience • Cancer Growth and Treatment • Cell Biology • Developmental Biology • Ecology • Evolution • Immunology, • Infectious and non-infectious Diseases, • Mathematical, Computational, Biophysical and Statistical Modeling • Microbiology, Molecular Biology, and Biochemistry • Networks and Complex Systems • Physiology • Pharmacodynamics • Animal Behavior and Game Theory Acceptable papers are those that bear significant importance on the biology per se being presented, and not on the mathematical analysis. Papers that include some data or experimental material bearing on theory will be considered, including those that contain comparative study, statistical data analysis, mathematical proof, computer simulations, experiments, field observations, or even philosophical arguments, which are all methods to support or reject theoretical ideas. However, there should be a concerted effort to make papers intelligible to biologists in the chosen field.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信