Assessing spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological droughts in the Marmara Basin using HadGEM2-ES global climate model data

Abstract

In this study, spatial and temporal characteristics of meteorological droughts in the Marmara Basin, which is located in the semi-arid climate region with the highest population density in Turkey, were determined using HadGEM2-ES global climate model data. Here, precipitation projection data using both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were employed. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed to calculate drought intensities, and areal distributions of drought were determined using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation method. Drought intensity-area-frequency (DIAF) curves for the basin were created by converting point drought intensity data into areal drought data. The DIAF curves provided analysis of the temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts in the basin and revealed that drought intensities are projected to be higher under the RCP 8.5 scenario.