Global extinction of Slender-billed Curlew (Numenius tenuirostris)

Abstract

In the current biodiversity crisis, conservation efforts are often focused on extinction prevention. However, it can be difficult to determine if a species is extinct, especially if the species has an extensive range, including being a transcontinental migrant, or is poorly known. The breeding range of the migratory Critically Endangered Slender-billed Curlew Numenius tenuirostris is uncertain, and the species has an extensive non-breeding range that spans central Asia, eastern Europe, the Middle East, the Mediterranean basin and the northwest African coast. There have been no incontrovertible sightings since 1995. In this time, extensive and intensive searches for the species have continued. Using an IUCN extinction probability framework, we incorporate potential threats to the species, search effort and past records (museum specimens and confirmed and unconfirmed sightings, all of which are primarily from its non-breeding range) to assess the probability of extinction. The model indicates that there is a 96.0% probability that Slender-billed Curlew is no longer extant, classing it as Extinct according to IUCN Red List guidelines. Posterior probability Bayesian extinction date estimation modelling suggests an extinction year around the time of the 1995 sighting. Although several threats to the species have been suggested, those that definitively drove the species to extinction will never be known. Other species of Numenius are under a range of pressures, and many are recognized as globally threatened. To ensure the continued survival of all shorebird species, we advocate flyway-scale concerted, coordinated action, and caution against complacency even for widespread but threatened taxa in Europe.