Rainy Ottoman Days: Rescuing and Analysing Rainfall Data (1846–1917) in Constantinople (Istanbul, Türkiye)

IF 3.3 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Ferhat Yilmaz, Michel Tsamados, Dan Osborn
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Abstract

This study focuses on rescuing and analysing historical monthly rainfall data in Istanbul from 1846 to 1917 for the first time. Rainfall records from various stations, collected by foreign scientists, engineers and officials during the last century of the Ottoman Empire, were digitised in accordance with the Guidelines on Best Practices for Climate Data Rescue by the World Meteorological Organisation and assessed for homogeneity. The Pettitt test was employed to identify and address inhomogeneities and detect any potential change points at each station. Monthly and annual rainfall time series (1846–2023) were reconstructed, and long-term trends were analysed by using the Hamed and Rao Modified Mann–Kendall test to evaluate changes in Istanbul's rainfall patterns over time. Comparisons between historical data (1846–1923) and recent data (1946–2023) reveal a shift towards increased early-year rainfall and decreased late-year rainfall in recent decades. The study also identifies significant variability in observation data prior to 1937 compared to 20th CRv3 reanalysis data, attributed to the limited early records, with improved consistency in recent years. An analysis of reconstructed rainfall data from 1846 to 2023 revealed a significant annual decrease, with decreasing trends in August, September and November. In contrast, the 20thCRv3 reanalysis data indicates a significant annual increase with increasing trends in October over the same period.

Abstract Image

多雨的奥斯曼时代:在君士坦丁堡(伊斯坦布尔,土耳其)抢救和分析降雨数据(1846-1917)
本研究首次对伊斯坦布尔1846 - 1917年的历史月降雨量数据进行了抢救和分析。根据世界气象组织的《气候数据救援最佳实践指南》,由外国科学家、工程师和官员在奥斯曼帝国上个世纪收集的各个站点的降雨记录进行了数字化,并对其同质性进行了评估。采用Pettitt测试来识别和处理不均匀性,并检测每个站点的任何潜在变化点。重建了1846-2023年的月和年降雨时间序列,并利用Hamed和Rao修正Mann-Kendall检验分析了伊斯坦布尔降雨模式的长期变化趋势。对历史数据(1846-1923)和近期数据(1946-2023)的比较显示,近几十年来年初降雨量增加,年末降雨量减少。该研究还发现,由于早期记录有限,1937年以前的观测数据与第20次CRv3再分析数据相比存在显著的变异性,近年来的一致性有所改善。对1846 - 2023年重建的降水资料进行分析,发现降水量的年递减趋势明显,在8月、9月和11月呈递减趋势。相比之下,第20thCRv3再分析数据显示,同期10月的年增长率显著上升,且呈上升趋势。
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来源期刊
Geoscience Data Journal
Geoscience Data Journal GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARYMETEOROLOGY-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
5.90
自引率
9.40%
发文量
35
审稿时长
4 weeks
期刊介绍: Geoscience Data Journal provides an Open Access platform where scientific data can be formally published, in a way that includes scientific peer-review. Thus the dataset creator attains full credit for their efforts, while also improving the scientific record, providing version control for the community and allowing major datasets to be fully described, cited and discovered. An online-only journal, GDJ publishes short data papers cross-linked to – and citing – datasets that have been deposited in approved data centres and awarded DOIs. The journal will also accept articles on data services, and articles which support and inform data publishing best practices. Data is at the heart of science and scientific endeavour. The curation of data and the science associated with it is as important as ever in our understanding of the changing earth system and thereby enabling us to make future predictions. Geoscience Data Journal is working with recognised Data Centres across the globe to develop the future strategy for data publication, the recognition of the value of data and the communication and exploitation of data to the wider science and stakeholder communities.
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