{"title":"The Ashley and Patterson (1986) test for serial independence in daily stock returns, revisited","authors":"Richard A. Ashley, Faezeh Najafi","doi":"10.1007/s10479-024-06355-0","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We update and extend the non-parametric test proposed in Ashley and Patterson (J Financ Quant Anal 21:221–227, 2014) – of the proposition that the (pre-whitened) daily stock returns for a firm are serially independent, and hence unpredictable from their own past. That paper applied this test to daily returns from 1962 to 1981 for several U.S. corporations and aggregate indices, finding mixed evidence against this null hypothesis of serial independence. The returns dataset is updated here to include thirteen firms which are currently more relevant, and the sample is extended through the end of 2023. We also update the simulation methodology here to properly account for the conditional heteroskedasticity in the daily returns data, so that the present results should now be more statistically reliable. The results are broadly in line with our earlier results, but they do suggest further avenues of research in this area.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":8215,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Operations Research","volume":"346 1","pages":"567 - 584"},"PeriodicalIF":4.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10479-024-06355-0.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Annals of Operations Research","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10479-024-06355-0","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
We update and extend the non-parametric test proposed in Ashley and Patterson (J Financ Quant Anal 21:221–227, 2014) – of the proposition that the (pre-whitened) daily stock returns for a firm are serially independent, and hence unpredictable from their own past. That paper applied this test to daily returns from 1962 to 1981 for several U.S. corporations and aggregate indices, finding mixed evidence against this null hypothesis of serial independence. The returns dataset is updated here to include thirteen firms which are currently more relevant, and the sample is extended through the end of 2023. We also update the simulation methodology here to properly account for the conditional heteroskedasticity in the daily returns data, so that the present results should now be more statistically reliable. The results are broadly in line with our earlier results, but they do suggest further avenues of research in this area.
期刊介绍：
The Annals of Operations Research publishes peer-reviewed original articles dealing with key aspects of operations research, including theory, practice, and computation. The journal publishes full-length research articles, short notes, expositions and surveys, reports on computational studies, and case studies that present new and innovative practical applications.
In addition to regular issues, the journal publishes periodic special volumes that focus on defined fields of operations research, ranging from the highly theoretical to the algorithmic and the applied. These volumes have one or more Guest Editors who are responsible for collecting the papers and overseeing the refereeing process.
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