Trends in stroke mortality in Latin America and the Caribbean from 1997 to 2020 and predictions to 2035: An analysis of gender, and geographical disparities

IF 2 4区医学 Q3 NEUROSCIENCES

Journal of Stroke & Cerebrovascular Diseases Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI:10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2025.108286

J. Smith Torres-Roman MD,MSc , Carlos Quispe-Vicuña MD , Alexandra Benavente-Casas MD , Dante Julca-Marin MS , Wagner Rios-Garcia MS , Mabel R. Challapa-Mamani MS , Lita del Rio-Muñiz MD , Jorge Ybaseta-Medina MD, PhD

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability globally, with significant public health implications. In Latin America, while mortality rates have declined, the number of stroke cases has increased due to prevalent risk factors like high blood pressure and obesity. Unlike Europe, recent trends in stroke mortality in this region remain underreported.

Objective

This study evaluates stroke mortality rates in Latin America Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries from 1997 to 2020 and predictions to 2035.

Methods

This ecological observational study utilized mortality data from the World Health Organization database. Trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression to evaluate the annual percent change (APC) by sex and country. Predicted mortality rates through 2035 were calculated using the Nordpred package in R. Changes in stroke mortality were assessed by disentangling the effects of population growth, aging, and risk factor modifications, based on age-specific rates and projections. Results were presented as absolute case numbers and relative percentages.

Results

From 1997 to 2020, twelve countries presented significant reductions in stroke mortality rates for men in LAC, the main ones being Chile (−4.2 %), El Salvador (−4.2 %), and Puerto Rico (−4.0 %). Thirteen countries reported a reduction in their mortality for women, mainly in Puerto Rico (−4.3 %), Chile (−3.7 %), Argentina, El Salvador, and Uruguay (−3.5 %). By 2035, an increase in deaths among men and women is expected, mainly due to the increase in population structure and size. However, a decrease in the mortality rate will be reported, mainly due to the reduction of risk factors.

Conclusion

Our final findings show a reduction in stroke mortality trends in LAC countries between 1997 and 2020, due to creating public awareness about vascular risk factors by authorities and the implementation of effective health policies. By 2035, an overall increase in mortality is expected, mainly due to population change in each country.

查看原文本刊更多论文

1997 - 2020年拉丁美洲和加勒比地区脑卒中死亡率趋势及2035年预测：性别和地域差异分析

背景：中风是全球死亡和残疾的主要原因，具有重大的公共卫生影响。在拉丁美洲，虽然死亡率有所下降，但由于高血压和肥胖等普遍存在的风险因素，中风病例数量有所增加。与欧洲不同，该地区中风死亡率的最新趋势仍未得到充分报道。目的：本研究评估拉丁美洲和加勒比（LAC）国家1997年至2020年的脑卒中死亡率，并预测到2035年。方法：本生态观察研究利用世界卫生组织数据库中的死亡率数据。使用Joinpoint回归分析趋势，评估按性别和国家划分的年度百分比变化（APC）。使用r中的Nordpred软件包计算到2035年的预测死亡率。根据特定年龄的死亡率和预测，通过解开人口增长、老龄化和风险因素修改的影响，评估中风死亡率的变化。结果以绝对病例数和相对百分比呈现。结果：从1997年到2020年，拉丁美洲和加勒比地区有12个国家的男性中风死亡率显著下降，主要是智利（-4.2%）、萨尔瓦多（-4.2%）和波多黎各（-4.0%）。13个国家报告妇女死亡率下降，主要是波多黎各（-4.3%）、智利（-3.7%）、阿根廷、萨尔瓦多和乌拉圭（-3.5%）。到2035年，预计男女死亡人数将增加，这主要是由于人口结构和规模的增加。然而，将报告死亡率下降，这主要是由于风险因素减少。结论：我们的最终研究结果显示，由于当局提高了公众对血管危险因素的认识，并实施了有效的卫生政策，1997年至2020年间，拉美和加勒比地区国家中风死亡率呈下降趋势。到2035年，预计死亡率将总体上升，这主要是由于每个国家的人口变化。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Stroke & Cerebrovascular Diseases Medicine-Surgery

CiteScore

5.00

自引率

4.00%

发文量

583

审稿时长

62 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Stroke & Cerebrovascular Diseases publishes original papers on basic and clinical science related to the fields of stroke and cerebrovascular diseases. The Journal also features review articles, controversies, methods and technical notes, selected case reports and other original articles of special nature. Its editorial mission is to focus on prevention and repair of cerebrovascular disease. Clinical papers emphasize medical and surgical aspects of stroke, clinical trials and design, epidemiology, stroke care delivery systems and outcomes, imaging sciences and rehabilitation of stroke. The Journal will be of special interest to specialists involved in caring for patients with cerebrovascular disease, including neurologists, neurosurgeons and cardiologists.