Accounting and system dynamics simulation of water resource liabilities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone, China

IF 1.5 4区社会学 Q2 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Evaluation and Program Planning Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI:10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2025.102586

Dandan Zhang , Bo Liu , Pengfei Liu , Zeyu Wang

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Abstract

Based on the concept of sustainable water resources management, this study defines water resources liability (WRL) as the compensation liability formed in the process of unreasonable utilization of water resources, which will lead to the damage of resources and environment. Combined with system dynamics (SD) method, a simulation model of WRL is constructed to analyze the WRL of the Yangtze River Economic Zone (YREZ) from 2021 to 2030 in three development modes, which are status quo continuation mode, economic development mode, and resource and environment-friendly mode. The results reveal that: (1) In the status quo continuation mode, the scale of WRL can be effectively controlled, and the WRL will be reduced to 11.20 billion m³ in 2030. However, the WRL of Jiangsu, Jiangxi and Hunan show a rapid growth trend. (2) In the economic development mode, agricultural and domestic water consumption increase significantly, and the WRL will be close to 50 billion m³ in 2030, indicating that excessive pursuit of economic development in terms of speed and scale will lead to increased demand for water resources and aggravate water environment pollution. (3) In the resource and environment-friendly mode, the WRL is estimated to be 1.09 billion m³ in 2021 and would decrease to 0 billion m³. This mode can alleviate the situation of water shortage and pollution, and the impact of water resources utilization on the environment will be minimized. This study provides a theoretical basis for the government to formulate countermeasures to promote the coordinated development of the social economy and water resource system.

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长江经济带水资源负债核算与系统动力学模拟

基于水资源可持续管理的理念，本研究将水资源责任定义为在不合理利用水资源的过程中形成的，导致资源环境破坏的补偿责任。结合系统动力学（SD）方法，构建了WRL仿真模型，分析了长江经济带在现状延续模式、经济发展模式和资源环境友好模式下2021 - 2030年的WRL。结果表明：(1)在现状延续模式下，可有效控制水资源存储量规模，2030年水资源存储量将降至11.2亿m3；而江苏、江西、湖南三省的土壤土壤资源量呈现快速增长趋势。(2)在经济发展模式下，农业和生活用水显著增加，2030年WRL将接近500亿m3，表明经济发展在速度和规模上的过度追求将导致水资源需求增加，水环境污染加剧。(3)在资源环境友好型模式下，预计2021年WRL为10.9亿m3，将减少到1000亿m3。这种模式可以缓解水资源短缺和污染的情况，将水资源利用对环境的影响降到最低。本研究为政府制定促进社会经济与水资源系统协调发展的对策提供了理论依据。

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来源期刊

Evaluation and Program Planning SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY-

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

6.20%

发文量

112

期刊介绍： Evaluation and Program Planning is based on the principle that the techniques and methods of evaluation and planning transcend the boundaries of specific fields and that relevant contributions to these areas come from people representing many different positions, intellectual traditions, and interests. In order to further the development of evaluation and planning, we publish articles from the private and public sectors in a wide range of areas: organizational development and behavior, training, planning, human resource development, health and mental, social services, mental retardation, corrections, substance abuse, and education.