Accounting and system dynamics simulation of water resource liabilities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone, China

IF 1.5 4区社会学 Q2 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Evaluation and Program Planning Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI:10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2025.102586

Dandan Zhang , Bo Liu , Pengfei Liu , Zeyu Wang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Based on the concept of sustainable water resources management, this study defines water resources liability (WRL) as the compensation liability formed in the process of unreasonable utilization of water resources, which will lead to the damage of resources and environment. Combined with system dynamics (SD) method, a simulation model of WRL is constructed to analyze the WRL of the Yangtze River Economic Zone (YREZ) from 2021 to 2030 in three development modes, which are status quo continuation mode, economic development mode, and resource and environment-friendly mode. The results reveal that: (1) In the status quo continuation mode, the scale of WRL can be effectively controlled, and the WRL will be reduced to 11.20 billion m³ in 2030. However, the WRL of Jiangsu, Jiangxi and Hunan show a rapid growth trend. (2) In the economic development mode, agricultural and domestic water consumption increase significantly, and the WRL will be close to 50 billion m³ in 2030, indicating that excessive pursuit of economic development in terms of speed and scale will lead to increased demand for water resources and aggravate water environment pollution. (3) In the resource and environment-friendly mode, the WRL is estimated to be 1.09 billion m³ in 2021 and would decrease to 0 billion m³. This mode can alleviate the situation of water shortage and pollution, and the impact of water resources utilization on the environment will be minimized. This study provides a theoretical basis for the government to formulate countermeasures to promote the coordinated development of the social economy and water resource system.

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来源期刊

Evaluation and Program Planning SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY-

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

6.20%

发文量

112

期刊介绍： Evaluation and Program Planning is based on the principle that the techniques and methods of evaluation and planning transcend the boundaries of specific fields and that relevant contributions to these areas come from people representing many different positions, intellectual traditions, and interests. In order to further the development of evaluation and planning, we publish articles from the private and public sectors in a wide range of areas: organizational development and behavior, training, planning, human resource development, health and mental, social services, mental retardation, corrections, substance abuse, and education.