Predicting the invasiveness of alpine newts in the UK.

IF 2.8 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
Biological Invasions Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-10 DOI:10.1007/s10530-025-03543-2
Alexandra C North, Luke J Sutton, Jason L Brown, Trenton W J Garner, Richard A Billington, John W Wilkinson, Manuela Truebano, Robert Puschendorf
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Predicting invasion risk to novel environments is essential for risk management and conservation decision making but the evolutionary lineage at which to make these predictions is often unclear. Here we predict the current suitability across the United Kingdom (UK) for the alpine newt Ichthyosaura alpestris, a species with a complex evolutionary history, a broad native range, a growing number of introduced populations and anecdotal reports of ecological consequences to native amphibian communities. We use species distribution and ecological niche modelling to predict environmental suitability of the alpine newt in the UK at both the species-level and lineage-level and to quantify evolutionary lineage niche overlap. We show good model transferability at the species-level and parts of the UK-especially central and eastern England and parts of central and northern Scotland-to be highly environmentally suitable for the alpine newt. Our findings provide evidence of environmental niche differences at the lineage-level, with the Greek lineage being distinct from most other lineages, but with low confidence in maxent predictions for the Greek, Balkan and Italian lineages due to high levels of extrapolation. In contrast, the niche of the UK records appear to share the same niche as the Central lineage. We find 66% of currently known alpine newt records to fall within areas predicted to be environmentally suitable at the species-level, providing a series of testable hypotheses to better understand the invasion ecology of this species in the UK.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-025-03543-2.

预测英国高山蝾螈的入侵。
预测新环境的入侵风险对风险管理和保护决策至关重要,但做出这些预测的进化谱系往往不清楚。在这里,我们预测了目前在英国(UK)的高山蝾螈(Ichthyosaura alpestris)的适宜性,这种物种具有复杂的进化史,广泛的本地范围,越来越多的引入种群和对本地两栖动物群落的生态后果的轶事报道。我们使用物种分布和生态位模型来预测英国高山蝾螈在物种水平和谱系水平上的环境适应性,并量化进化谱系生态位重叠。我们展示了在物种水平和英国部分地区,特别是英格兰中部和东部以及苏格兰中部和北部的部分地区,良好的模型可转移性,在环境上非常适合高山蝾螈。我们的研究结果在谱系水平上提供了环境生态位差异的证据,希腊谱系与大多数其他谱系不同,但由于高水平的外推,对希腊、巴尔干和意大利谱系的生存预测信心不足。相比之下,英国记录的利基似乎与中央血统共享相同的利基。我们发现目前已知的高山蝾螈记录中有66%落在物种水平上预测的环境适宜区域内,提供了一系列可测试的假设,以更好地了解该物种在英国的入侵生态。补充资料:在线版本提供补充资料,网址为10.1007/s10530-025-03543-2。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Biological Invasions
Biological Invasions 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
6.90%
发文量
248
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Biological Invasions publishes research and synthesis papers on patterns and processes of biological invasions in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine (including brackish) ecosystems. Also of interest are scholarly papers on management and policy issues as they relate to conservation programs and the global amelioration or control of invasions. The journal will consider proposals for special issues resulting from conferences or workshops on invasions.There are no page charges to publish in this journal.
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