Direct and indirect impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy and person-years of life lost with and without disability: A systematic analysis for 18 European countries, 2020-2022.

IF 15.8 1区 医学 Q1 Medicine
PLoS Medicine Pub Date : 2025-03-11 eCollection Date: 2025-03-01 DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1004541
Sara Ahmadi-Abhari, Piotr Bandosz, Martin J Shipley, Joni V Lindbohm, Abbas Dehghan, Paul Elliott, Mika Kivimaki
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Abstract

Background: The direct and indirect impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy (LE) and years of life lost with and without disability remain unclear. Accounting for pre-pandemic trends in morbidity and mortality, we assessed these impacts in 18 European countries, for the years 2020-2022.

Methods and findings: We used multi-state Markov modeling based on several data sources to track transitions of the population aged 35 or older between eight health states from disease-free, combinations of cardiovascular disease, cognitive impairment, dementia, and disability, through to death. We quantified separately numbers and rates of deaths attributable to COVID-19 from those related to mortality from other causes during 2020-2022, and estimated the proportion of loss of life expectancy and years of life with and without disability that could have been avoided if the pandemic had not occurred. Estimates were disaggregated by COVID-19 versus non-COVID causes of deaths, calendar year, age, sex, disability status, and country. We generated the 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) using Monte Carlo simulations with 500 iterations. Among the 289 million adult population in the 18 countries, person-years of life lost (PYLL) in millions were 4.7 (95% UI 3.4-6.0) in 2020, 7.1 (95% UI 6.6-7.9) in 2021, and 5.0 (95% UI 4.1-6.2) in 2022, totaling 16.8 (95% UI 12.0-21.8) million. PYLL per capita varied considerably between the 18 countries ranging between 20 and 109 per 1,000 population. About 60% of the total PYLL occurred among persons aged over 80, and 30% in those aged 65-80. If the pandemic were avoided, over half (9.8 million (95% UI 4.7-15.1)) of the 16.8 million PYLL were estimated to have been lived without disability. Of the total PYLL, 11.6-13.2 million were due to registered COVID-19 deaths and 3.6-5.3 million due to non-COVID mortality. Despite a decrease in PYLL attributable to COVID-19 after 2021, PYLL associated with other causes of death continued to increase from 2020 to 2022 in most countries. Lower income countries had higher PYLL per capita as well as a greater proportion of disability-free PYLL during 2020-2022. Similar patterns were observed for life expectancy. In 2021, LE at age 35 (LE-35) declined by up to 2.8 (95% UI 2.3-3.3) years, with over two-thirds being disability-free. With the exception of Sweden, LE-35 in the studied countries did not recover to 2019 levels by 2022.

Conclusions: The considerable loss of life without disability and the rise in premature mortality not directly linked to COVID-19 deaths during 2020-2022 suggest a potential broader, longer-term and partially indirect impact of the pandemic, possibly resulting from disruptions in healthcare delivery and services for non-COVID conditions and unintended consequences of COVID-19 containment measures. These findings highlight a need for better pandemic preparedness in Europe, ideally, as part of a more comprehensive global public health agenda.

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来源期刊
PLoS Medicine
PLoS Medicine MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL-
CiteScore
17.60
自引率
0.60%
发文量
227
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: PLOS Medicine is a prominent platform for discussing and researching global health challenges. The journal covers a wide range of topics, including biomedical, environmental, social, and political factors affecting health. It prioritizes articles that contribute to clinical practice, health policy, or a better understanding of pathophysiology, ultimately aiming to improve health outcomes across different settings. The journal is unwavering in its commitment to uphold the highest ethical standards in medical publishing. This includes actively managing and disclosing any conflicts of interest related to reporting, reviewing, and publishing. PLOS Medicine promotes transparency in the entire review and publication process. The journal also encourages data sharing and encourages the reuse of published work. Additionally, authors retain copyright for their work, and the publication is made accessible through Open Access with no restrictions on availability and dissemination. PLOS Medicine takes measures to avoid conflicts of interest associated with advertising drugs and medical devices or engaging in the exclusive sale of reprints.
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