Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on New Physician Job Market Outcomes.

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the pandemic's impacts on new physician job market outcomes.

Design: We conducted a retrospective, repeated cross-sectional analysis using an interrupted time series approach on graduating residents and fellows from New York. We estimated linear probability models to examine binary outcomes and a generalized estimating equations model to analyze the base salary (measured in 2022 dollars). Each model included the following covariates: sex, age, race/ethnicity, educational debt, primary care specialty, international medical graduate status, and citizenship. We also conducted stratification analyses.

Setting: Annual data from the 2010 to 2022 Survey of Residents Completing Training in New York.

Participants: In all, 31,925 graduating residents and fellows, with 16,612 accepting a job offer to enter the workforce as new physicians, participated in the study.

Interventions: COVID-19.

Results: Graduating residents and fellows had a 1.58% (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.000, 0.031) increase (86.60% vs. 88.18%) in their likelihood of receiving any job offers, but a 11.64% (95% CI, -0.139, -0.095) decrease (55.77% vs. 44.13%) in reporting a good job market outlook without a significant change in accepting a job offer from pre-pandemic to during the pandemic. New physicians experienced reductions in likelihood of entering rural practice(3.4% vs. 0.62% with a change of -3.38%, 95% CI, -0.046, -0.022), base salary ($288,257 vs. $264,687 with a change of -$23,569, 95% CI, -$28,703, -$18,435), likelihood of receiving additional job-related incentives (69.18% vs. 66.26% with a change of -2.92%, 95% CI,-0.054, -0.0043), and salary satisfaction (86.46% vs. 84.05% with a change of -2.4%, 95% CI, -0.005, -0.043) compared with the pre-pandemic trend.

Conclusions: The pandemic significantly reduced new physicians' likelihood of entering rural practice and compensation, disproportionately affecting new primary care physicians. Such reductions may have adverse impacts on health care access, especially in rural areas.