Quantifying the anthropogenic sensitivity of ecological patterns in arid urban agglomeration

Abstract

Human activities have profoundly reshaped fundamental ecological processes, pushing ecosystems toward unsustainable trajectories, particularly in the ecologically fragile regions such as Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin urban agglomeration. To address these challenges, a quantitative framework was developed to evaluate anthropogenic sensitivity of ecological patterns. Functional connectivity was modeled using an omnidirectional circuit model to represent regional ecological patterns, with landscape elements extracted through morphological analysis. The mechanisms, intensity and pathways of anthropogenic sensitivity were explored using Geodetector and structural equation modeling, identifying habitat quality as a key mediating factor. The findings indicate that improving habitat quality greatly enhances omnidirectional connectivity. Among landscape elements, islets exhibit lower connectivity than the edges of core areas, despite higher resistance being assigned to the edges. In the Mu Us Desert, strip-like corridors serve as connectors but remain fragile, whereas in the Kubuqi Desert, patch-like corridors primarily function as barriers. Habitat quality and cultivated land emerge as dominant drivers of omnidirectional connectivity, while population and bare land contribute negatively through interactive effects that exceed the impacts of individual factors. Habitat quality directly enhances omnidirectional connectivity, with a path coefficient of 0.67. Bare land negatively impacts habitat quality, with a coefficient of −0.65, while cultivated land has a negative effect on grassland, with a coefficient of −0.82, indirectly shape regional ecological patterns. This study provides a quantitative understanding of the mechanisms driving anthropogenic sensitivity in ecological patterns, offering valuable insights to guide and optimize ecological spatial planning in arid urban agglomerations.