Analyses of pandemics’ quantitative data and economic indicators

Abstract

The proposed work is a study that attempts to evaluate the financial impacts of pandemic mitigation strategies in order to be part of a central model that forecasts different scenarios in pandemic situations considering the impact of mitigation procedures in the Economic System and Healthcare System. Economic fluctuations impose a more significant challenge on prediction models, and pandemic modeling methodologies are primarily concerned with the variability of epidemic features, the efficiency of control measures over time, and the development of different viral variants. In this context, this paper correlates economic indicators with quantitative parameters of the last three respiratory virus pandemics, specifically the GDP and the unemployment rates, with a sample encompassing three European countries, the United Kingdom (UK), France, and Germany, that pass through the pandemics under study. The results provide intriguing information, such as the moderated and weak correlation factor between deaths with GDP in the Spanish flu and Swine flu, and the WWI and the 2009 crises can explain which. On the other hand, the correlation factors associated with COVID-19 show a weak to moderate correlation parameter with GDP and unemployment rates but present interesting numbers when the number of people fully vaccinated is compared with GDP. Also, as the correlation factor does not presente a strong relation between daily deaths and GDP, this indicates a necessity for comparison with other economic parameters.