A regional domestic energy consumption model based on LoD1 to assess energy-saving potential

Abstract

The residential sector accounts for a significant share of global carbon emissions, and energy efficiency retrofitting of buildings is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality. However, assessing energy demand and determining retrofit priorities within large building stocks presents numerous challenges. This study proposes an innovative and simplified approach that reduces the complexity of evaluating large-scale residential building stocks by focusing on building prototypes, thereby effectively assessing regional energy consumption. The innovation of this method lies in the combination of Shapley values with clustering techniques to ensure that building prototypes are representative in terms of energy efficiency. This not only enhances the interpretability of clustering results but also improves their practical application in energy efficiency analysis. Taking England as an example, this study identifies six residential building prototypes and constructs an energy consumption model based on Level of Detail 1 (LoD1), using calibration to capture regional heterogeneity. The research also finds that factors such as climate, demographics, and income significantly influence EUI, and there are notable variations across different regions and building types. Moreover, if all homes in the UK were to achieve a C-grade in Energy Performance Certificate (EPC), it is estimated that approximately 60,922.85 GWh of energy could be saved, representing 17.4% of the total residential sector energy consumption in the UK in 2021. This study provides a framework for the effective allocation of retrofit resources and identification of high-potential energy-saving opportunities.