The impact of anti-fragility on agricultural production under extreme precipitation in China

Abstract

Frequent extreme precipitation poses significant challenges to rural systems, underscoring the pivotal role of bolstering resilience against such weather extremes for the sustenance of rural sustainability. Although existing research has analysed the adverse effects of extreme precipitation on rural vulnerability, there remains a dearth of exploration into the potential benefits that rural areas might reap from such events. Drawing on Taleb's theory of anti-fragility, this study constructs a comprehensive measurement index system for the Rural Anti-Fragility Index (RAFI) from three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptation. In this work the spatiotemporal dynamics of rural anti-fragility in Chinese county-level rural areas and their impact on agricultural production were analysed. The results indicate that (1) Spanning 2000 to 2018, China's RAFI level continuously increased, with an overall level in the median range, the highest in the Rural Sensitivity Index (RSI), followed by the Rural Exposure Index (REI), and the lowest in the Rural Adaptation Index (RAI). (2) The RAFI exhibited significant spatial clustering characteristics, with high values in the southeast and low values in the northwest. Hotspots of Rural Anti-Fragility (RAF) are mainly concentrated in the Middlelower Yangtze Plain (MYP) and Southern China (SC), while cold spots are distributed in the transitional zones of the central and western regions, as well as Tibet, Xinjiang, and other areas, with the regions of cold and hot spots becoming increasingly significant and expanding continuously. (3) The presence of RAF positively and substantially influences agricultural output in terms of both area and yield, with the greatest effect on wheat, followed by rice and spring maize. The different levels of anti-fragility exhibited strong heterogeneity in their impacts on the production areas of the three crops. We advocate for deliberate and proactive measures to augment RAFI, paramount for the realization of enduring goals in rural sustainability and agricultural progression.