Impact of the South Korean government's medical school expansion announcement on pediatric emergency department visits.

Abstract

Background: In February 2024, the South Korean government announced a 67% increase in medical school admissions (2,000 more students), leading to the resignation of approximately 10,000 residents from major university hospitals. This study investigated the impact of these resignations on pediatric emergency department (PED) visits at a major tertiary hospital in Korea.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational study analyzing PED visits under 15 years old at a tertiary hospital from January 2019 to May 12, 2024. After excluding cases with missing diagnostic codes or disposition records, we analyzed visits during the 12-week period from February 19 to May 12 across different years (2019-2024). We used segmented regression of Interrupted Time Series (ITS) analysis to evaluate the impact of three key events: the COVID-19 onset, lifting of mask-wearing mandates, and residents' resignation, adjusting for seasonal variations and autocorrelation.

Results: Among 11,574 analyzed cases, weekly PED visits decreased significantly after residents' resignation (133.6 ± 22.4) compared to pre-COVID-19 (246.3 ± 45.2) and post-COVID-19 (263.7 ± 61.2) periods. The proportion of KTAS 3 cases increased to 67.2% during the resignation period compared to pre-COVID-19 (48.9%). ITS analysis revealed significant immediate changes in weekly visits: COVID-19 (-157.81 visits, 95% CI: -202.04 to -113.58), mask mandate removal (48.26 visits, 95% CI: 3.21 to 93.32), and residents' resignation (-77.82 visits, 95% CI: -134.85 to -20.80). Notably, the proportion of infectious diseases increased (36.9% vs. 18.6% pre-COVID-19), while respiratory diseases decreased (20.1% vs. 33.6% pre-COVID-19).

Conclusion: A substantial reduction in both absolute and relative weekly patient visits was observed following the start of the nationwide resident strike at our pediatric emergency department. Additional studies are needed to better understand how this affected pediatric emergency care delivery and access.