Xun Shen , Ye Wang , Kazumune Hashimoto , Yuhu Wu , Sebastien Gros
{"title":"Probabilistic reachable sets of stochastic nonlinear systems with contextual uncertainties","authors":"Xun Shen , Ye Wang , Kazumune Hashimoto , Yuhu Wu , Sebastien Gros","doi":"10.1016/j.automatica.2025.112237","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Validating and controlling safety-critical systems in uncertain environments necessitates probabilistic reachable sets of future state evolutions. The existing methods of computing probabilistic reachable sets normally assume that stochastic uncertainties are independent of system states, inputs, and other environment variables. However, this assumption falls short in many real-world applications, where the probability distribution governing uncertainties depends on these variables, referred to as <em>contextual uncertainties</em>. This paper addresses the challenge of computing probabilistic reachable sets of stochastic nonlinear states with contextual uncertainties by seeking minimum-volume polynomial sublevel sets with contextual chance constraints. The formulated problem cannot be solved by the existing sample-based approximation method since the existing methods do not consider conditional probability densities. To address this, we propose a consistent sample approximation of the original problem by leveraging conditional density estimation and resampling. The obtained approximate problem is a tractable optimization problem. Additionally, we prove the proposed sample-based approximation’s almost uniform convergence, showing that it gives the optimal solution almost consistently with the original ones. Through a numerical example, we evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method against existing approaches, highlighting its capability to significantly reduce the bias inherent in sample-based approximation without considering a conditional probability density.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":55413,"journal":{"name":"Automatica","volume":"176 ","pages":"Article 112237"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Automatica","FirstCategoryId":"94","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0005109825001293","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AUTOMATION & CONTROL SYSTEMS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Validating and controlling safety-critical systems in uncertain environments necessitates probabilistic reachable sets of future state evolutions. The existing methods of computing probabilistic reachable sets normally assume that stochastic uncertainties are independent of system states, inputs, and other environment variables. However, this assumption falls short in many real-world applications, where the probability distribution governing uncertainties depends on these variables, referred to as contextual uncertainties. This paper addresses the challenge of computing probabilistic reachable sets of stochastic nonlinear states with contextual uncertainties by seeking minimum-volume polynomial sublevel sets with contextual chance constraints. The formulated problem cannot be solved by the existing sample-based approximation method since the existing methods do not consider conditional probability densities. To address this, we propose a consistent sample approximation of the original problem by leveraging conditional density estimation and resampling. The obtained approximate problem is a tractable optimization problem. Additionally, we prove the proposed sample-based approximation’s almost uniform convergence, showing that it gives the optimal solution almost consistently with the original ones. Through a numerical example, we evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method against existing approaches, highlighting its capability to significantly reduce the bias inherent in sample-based approximation without considering a conditional probability density.
期刊介绍:
Automatica is a leading archival publication in the field of systems and control. The field encompasses today a broad set of areas and topics, and is thriving not only within itself but also in terms of its impact on other fields, such as communications, computers, biology, energy and economics. Since its inception in 1963, Automatica has kept abreast with the evolution of the field over the years, and has emerged as a leading publication driving the trends in the field.
After being founded in 1963, Automatica became a journal of the International Federation of Automatic Control (IFAC) in 1969. It features a characteristic blend of theoretical and applied papers of archival, lasting value, reporting cutting edge research results by authors across the globe. It features articles in distinct categories, including regular, brief and survey papers, technical communiqués, correspondence items, as well as reviews on published books of interest to the readership. It occasionally publishes special issues on emerging new topics or established mature topics of interest to a broad audience.
Automatica solicits original high-quality contributions in all the categories listed above, and in all areas of systems and control interpreted in a broad sense and evolving constantly. They may be submitted directly to a subject editor or to the Editor-in-Chief if not sure about the subject area. Editorial procedures in place assure careful, fair, and prompt handling of all submitted articles. Accepted papers appear in the journal in the shortest time feasible given production time constraints.