Predicting Electric Vehicle Charging Demand in Residential Areas Using POI Data and Decision-Making Model

Abstract

Transport electrification is a crucial element of the ongoing energy transition, essential for achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. The proliferation of electric vehicles (EVs) introduces significant challenges to power distribution network stability due to their aggregated charging load in residential areas, particularly during peak electricity consumption periods. This paper proposes a method to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of EV charging demand in residential areas using geographic information points of interest (POI) data features and a decision-making model. Utilizing real historical data, probability distribution models for EV users' arrival times and charging characteristics were constructed using Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM). The spatiotemporal characteristics of EV travel and charging behaviors were analyzed, and a comprehensive charging decision model incorporating both emergency and stochastic scenarios was developed. The model's efficacy in capturing the probability distributions of characteristic variables was validated through a case study. The results demonstrate the model's potential for accurately predicting EV charging demand, providing valuable insights for infrastructure planning and resource allocation. © 2024 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan and Wiley Periodicals LLC.