Heatwave Magnitude Impact and Projected Changes Over Himachal Pradesh: CMIP6 Projections

Abstract

The Indian subcontinent has increasingly experienced extreme and severe heat waves in recent years, with significant implications for public health and infrastructure. This study investigates the rising variability in heatwave characteristics—such as duration, frequency, and intensity—specifically in Himachal Pradesh, India. Utilizing daily maximum temperature data from 13 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the CMIP6 framework, this research examines projections from 2020 to 2100 across four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5. The analysis aims to predict the impact of climate change on heatwave patterns at the district level in Himachal Pradesh, highlighting variations in intensity and frequency throughout the region. Our findings reveal that certain districts are particularly vulnerable to heatwaves, with significant differences in how altitude and varying degrees of climate change influence these patterns. Notably, the results indicate that as altitude increases, so does the frequency and intensity of heat waves—contrary to traditional assumptions about elevation mitigating extreme heat events. This study contributes novel insights into the relationship between climate change and heatwave dynamics in mountainous regions. By offering high-resolution projections under multiple SSPs, the findings underscore the critical need for altitude-specific adaptation measures to mitigate the escalating impacts of heatwaves in Himachal Pradesh under future climate scenarios.