Asian geopolitical risks: A key driver behind WTI-Brent spread market volatility

IF 6.9 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2025.107090

Shaojiang Wu , Wei Han

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Using the quantile-based Granger causality test, we explore how geopolitical risks in Asian countries affect the price spread between WTI and Brent crude oil. Our findings highlight varied regional effects, predominantly within the lower (0.10∼0.25) and upper (0.60∼0.80) quantiles of the distribution, despite developing three quantile-based models. Furthermore, our results suggest that Asian geopolitical risks exert similar influences on the price spread as global risks, indicating their potential to significantly impact the dynamics of the international energy market. Thus, Asian geopolitical risks may play a crucial role in shaping the future of the international energy futures market.

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亚洲地缘政治风险：WTI-Brent价差市场波动的主要驱动因素

利用基于量值的格兰杰因果检验，我们探讨了亚洲国家的地缘政治风险如何影响 WTI 和布伦特原油之间的价差。尽管建立了三个基于量级的模型，但我们的研究结果突出了不同的区域效应，主要是在分布的下量级（0.10∼0.25）和上量级（0.60∼0.80）。此外，我们的研究结果表明，亚洲地缘政治风险对价差的影响与全球风险类似，表明其有可能对国际能源市场的动态产生重大影响。因此，亚洲地缘政治风险可能在塑造国际能源期货市场的未来方面发挥关键作用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Finance Research Letters BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.10

自引率

14.40%

发文量

863

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