Comparative analysis of machine learning models for predicting water quality index in Dhaka’s rivers of Bangladesh

Abstract

The pollution in Dhaka's navigable waterways, including the Buriganga, Balu, Tongi Khal, and Turag rivers, is a significant concern due to rapid industrial and urban expansion. Industrial discharges, domestic sewage and inadequate waste management are the primary sources of this pollution, degrading water quality and threatening aquatic ecosystems. This study aimed to predict the Water Quality Index (WQI) of these rivers using fourteen machine learning (ML) models: Decision Tree Regression, Linear Regression, Ridge Regression, Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) Regressor, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) Regressor, Light Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) Regressor, Elastic Net Regressor, Support Vector Regression (SVM), Random Forest Regression, Bayesian Ridge Regressor, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), AdaBoost Regressor, CatBoost Regressor and Extra Trees Regressor. The objective was to evaluate and compare these models to identify the most effective predictive method for WQI, enabling efficient environmental monitoring and management of urban waterways. Among the evaluated ML models, ANN and Random Forest Regressor performed the best. The ANN model demonstrated superior predictive capability, achieving a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 2.34, a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.24, a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.97, and a Coefficient of Determination (R²) of 0.97. Furthermore, an Adjusted R² value of 0.965 further confirmed its ability to capture complex patterns in water quality data with remarkable accuracy. These findings emphasize the importance of using AI modeling techniques, specifically ANN and Random Forest Regression, to improve the accuracy of WQI forecasts for the waterways. This study contributes to the field of environmental science by offering a novel integration of feature selection techniques with ML models to enhance efficiency and cost-effectiveness of water quality monitoring. Unlike previous studies, this research specifically addresses the challenges of urban waterways in Dhaka, Bangladesh, a region significantly impacted by industrial and urban pollution. To our knowledge, this is the first study to apply such a comprehensive range of ML models to predict the WQI of Dhaka’s four major rivers. By providing a reliable methodology for WQI estimation, this study supports informed decision-making and proactive measures to protect vital water resources.