Global, regional, and national burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to kidney dysfunction (1990-2021) with projections to 2050: analysis of the 2021 Global Burden of Disease study.

Abstract

Aims: This study examines global trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) associated with kidney dysfunction (KD) from 1990 to 2021 and projects future trends through 2050.

Methods: This study analyzed the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, focusing on age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR), absolute numbers, estimated annual percentage change, and average annual percent change. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was employed to project global trends from 2022 to 2050. Variables included age, gender, national levels, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions.

Results: From 1990 to 2021, the CVD burden from KD increased, with deaths rising from 1,312,393 to 2,095,800 and DALYs from 27,382,767 to 41,589,861. However, the ASMR decreased from 40.58 per 100,000 in 1990 to 25.55 in 2021, while ASDR fell from 742.17 to 489.81 during the same period. The burden was higher in men, peaking at ages 70-74 and in women at ages 85-89. Regions with lower-middle and low SDI recorded the highest CVD burden, inversely related to SDI levels. Geographically, Central Asia and Eastern Europe recorded the highest rates, while high-income Asia Pacific and Southern Latin America had the lowest. Projections suggest a sustained decline in global CVD burden due to KD from 2022 to 2050, although disparities between sexes are expected to persist, with men bearing a heavier burden.

Conclusion: CVD attributable to KD remains a major global public health challenge, especially for men, the elderly, and low SDI regions. These spatial and temporal variations highlight the need for region-specific healthcare strategies.