Initiating social tipping dynamics in energy transitions: A novel analytical approach for exploring feedback loops and intervention points

Abstract

Social tipping dynamics illustrate how minor interventions can catalyse non-linear changes in energy transitions. Despite their importance, the feedback loops driving these dynamics are often analysed in isolation and predominantly qualitatively. This study addresses this gap by employing a novel analytical approach to systematically explore intervention points that trigger feedback loops as a mechanism for initiating social tipping dynamics. We applied this framework to Pully, Switzerland, a pioneering municipality that has ambitious energy targets. Cross Impact Balance Analysis was used to develop consistent scenarios, which were then analysed to identify dominant feedback loops, both stabilizing and reinforcing. Succession Analysis was employed to pinpoint intervention points that initiate social tipping dynamics and lead to the most desired scenario. Our research contributes to the empirical analysis of social tipping dynamics by providing a detailed understanding of the interplay between socio-technical factors for sustainability transitions.