Impact of town planning on direct residential CO2 emissions in rural China

Abstract

China’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 has made decarbonization a key principle for spatial planning (also referred to as urban/city/town planning). Although the mitigation effect of spatial planning in urban areas has been well documented, its significance in rural development has yet to be investigated. This paper addresses this research gap by empirically examining the influence of town planning on rural direct residential CO₂ emissions (DRCEs) across 30 provinces in China. Based on various quantitative models, this study not only confirms the significant impact of town planning on rural DRCEs and the moderation effect of plan implementation capacity but also discloses that different dimensions of town planning have disparate roles in rural DRCE reduction. Additionally, regional variations in the mitigation effects of town planning on rural DRCEs were observed. The study also reveals spatial spillover effects, indicating that the influence of town planning on rural DRCEs extends beyond individual areas. Overall, China’s experiences demonstrate that well-managed town planning could play an essential role in low-carbon rural revitalization or, otherwise, it may augment rural DRCEs per capita. Consequently, governments should ascribe great importance to low-carbon town planning and allocate sufficient resources to towns, especially those in the central and western regions, so that they can afford professional planning consultation and adequate staffing in plan implementation. Moreover, governments should cooperate to promote knowledge sharing and transferring of low-carbon planning.