Leveraging machine learning on the role of hospitalizations in the dynamics of dengue spread in Brazil: an ecological study of health systems resilience

IF 7 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES

Lancet Regional Health-Americas Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI:10.1016/j.lana.2025.101042

Paula de Castro-Nunes, Paloma Palmieri, Patrícia Passos Simões, Paulo Victor Rodrigues de Carvalho, Alessandro Jatobá

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background

The alarming rise in dengue cases and fatalities worldwide necessitates an in-depth analysis of essential public health functions (EPHFs) to fortify the resilience of health systems in the face of upcoming surges. This study focuses on the resilience of Brazil’s health system in managing dengue from 2010 to 2024, leveraging machine learning techniques to correlate EPHF variables with dengue outcomes.

Methods

Utilizing public data from DATASUS and IBGE, we evaluated indicators such as healthcare workforce, health facilities, and dengue-specific data. A regression tree analysis identified associations between dengue hospitalizations and dengue deaths among Brazilian capitals, emphasizing the importance of strengthening outpatient services and monitoring systems for resilient performance.

Findings

This study revealed that capitals with fewer hospitalizations have seen recent improvements; nevertheless, continuous efforts are vital to prevent sudden surges. These findings underscore the critical role of health surveillance and community involvement in enhancing EPHF performance.

Interpretation

This research contributes to understanding the dynamic interactions within health systems and highlights the importance of proactive and integrated public health strategies to manage dengue and similar arboviruses.

Funding

The present study was funded by the Inova Fiocruz Program, grant 1366515559697323; and by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), grant 401278/2022-0. Alessandro Jatobá is partially funded by CNPq, grants 307029/2021-2 and 405469/2023-3 and by the Carlos Chagas Filho Foundation for Research Support of the State of Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ), grant E-26/210.728/2023 and E-26/201.252/2022. Paulo Victor Rodrigues de Carvalho is partially funded by CNPq, grant: 304770/2020-5 and by FAPERJ, grant E-26/203.934/2024.

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来源期刊

Lancet Regional Health-Americas Multiple-

CiteScore

8.00

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Lancet Regional Health – Americas, an open-access journal, contributes to The Lancet's global initiative by focusing on health-care quality and access in the Americas. It aims to advance clinical practice and health policy in the region, promoting better health outcomes. The journal publishes high-quality original research advocating change or shedding light on clinical practice and health policy. It welcomes submissions on various regional health topics, including infectious diseases, non-communicable diseases, child and adolescent health, maternal and reproductive health, emergency care, health policy, and health equity.