Decennial Ward-Level Influence of Demographic, Farming, and Economic Predictors on All-Cause Mortality

Abstract

Objective

This study has arisen in response to a lack of studies examining how farming affects mortality patterns across areas of Northern Ireland (NI) over a 10-year period. This paper aims to investigate whether agriculturally intensive electoral Wards have higher mortality rates compared to non-agriculturally based Wards, controlling for relevant factors.

Methods

The population census and farm census information was downloaded from the Northern Ireland Neighbourhood Service (NINIS) website to construct two original mortality-based datasets. Linear regression was used for the analysis.

Design

Decennial Ward-Level Influence of Demographic, Farming, and Economic Predictors on All-Cause Mortality.

Setting

Five hundred and eighty-two Ward areas of Northern Ireland.

Main Outcome Measure

Mortality risk within Ward areas.

Results

Findings showed larger amounts of natural log of the population, 65 to 100+ year-olds, limiting long-term illnesses, Farming Intensity Scores, residents living alone and full-time workers within Wards were predictive of mortality risk within those Wards.

Conclusions

This study is the first of its kind in NI to provide evidence for Farming Intensity Scores explaining the variation of mortality rates between areas, in addition to many of the usual predictors.