Biomod2 for evaluating the changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of Locusta migratoria tibetensis Chen in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under climate change

Abstract

[Objective] The present study endeavors to elucidate the impact of climate change on the distribution of Locusta migratoria tibetensis Chen and to furnish theoretical underpinnings for the forecasting and management of this pest. [Method] Utilizing 68 geographical distribution points of L. migratoria tibetensis, in conjunction with 6 environmental variables, a composite model was developed employing the Biomod2 software package to simulate potential shifts in the spatial distribution of L. migratoria tibetensis under future climate scenarios. [Result] The current highly inhabitable region of L. migratoria tibetensis was predominantly located in the eastern and southern sectors of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, encompassing an area of 8.27 × 10⁴ km². The inhabitable region was the most widely distributed under SSP5–8.5 in the 2050 s, with an expanded area reaching 42.96 × 10⁴ km², and contiguous distributed in the western and northern parts of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau. The centroid of the highly and total inhabitable regions would migrate northwest under most scenarios. The main environmental variables affecting the distribution of L. migratoria tibetensis were altitude, the mean temperature of coldest quarter and the precipitation of warmest quarter. The ensemble model constructed by integrating the five optimal individual models demonstrated superior predictive performance, as evidenced by an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.918 and a true skill statistics value 0.752. [Conclusion] The spatial distribution pattern of L. migratoria tibetensis was predominantly influenced by altitude, with hydrological and thermal conditions also playing significant roles. Under future climate conditions, the highly inhabitable region of L. migratoria tibetensis was expected to increment, with the exception of scenarios under SSP2.6 and SSP5–8.5 in the 2090 s. Conversely, the moderately inhabitable region was anticipated to expand under all climate scenarios. Our findings indicated that climate warming could be advantageous for the survival of L. migratoria tibetensis, necessitating vigilant monitoring and the implementation of targeted prevention strategies.