Financial market reaction to the end of the right-wing populist government: The case of Poland

IF 6.9 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2025.106906

Selahattin Tolga Er , Jaroslaw Kantorowicz

引用次数: 0

Abstract

While extensive research has examined the impact of populist parties’ electoral victories on financial markets, less is known about the effects of their exit from government. This study addresses this gap by analyzing market response to the democratic transition away from populism in Poland. Leveraging the close competition in Poland’s 2023 general elections as a quasi-experimental framework, we use the event study and synthetic control methods to explore the market reaction to the end of the right-wing populist government. In the short term, we demonstrate a market premium associated with the democratic transition from the right-wing populist bloc to the pro-democratic bloc. Our findings from the synthetic control method corroborate these results, further suggesting enduring positive effects on investor welfare in the longer term.

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金融市场对右翼民粹主义政府下台的反应：以波兰为例

尽管广泛的研究考察了民粹主义政党在选举中获胜对金融市场的影响，但人们对它们退出政府的影响知之甚少。本研究通过分析波兰从民粹主义向民主过渡的市场反应来解决这一差距。我们以波兰2023年大选的激烈竞争为准实验框架，运用事件研究和综合控制方法探讨市场对右翼民粹主义政府终结的反应。在短期内，我们证明了与从右翼民粹主义集团到亲民主集团的民主过渡相关的市场溢价。我们在综合控制方法中的发现证实了这些结果，进一步表明在较长期内对投资者福利有持久的积极影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Finance Research Letters BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.10

自引率

14.40%

发文量

863

期刊介绍： Finance Research Letters welcomes submissions across all areas of finance, aiming for rapid publication of significant new findings. The journal particularly encourages papers that provide insight into the replicability of established results, examine the cross-national applicability of previous findings, challenge existing methodologies, or demonstrate methodological contingencies. Papers are invited in the following areas: Actuarial studies Alternative investments Asset Pricing Bankruptcy and liquidation Banks and other Depository Institutions Behavioral and experimental finance Bibliometric and Scientometric studies of finance Capital budgeting and corporate investment Capital markets and accounting Capital structure and payout policy Commodities Contagion, crises and interdependence Corporate governance Credit and fixed income markets and instruments Derivatives Emerging markets Energy Finance and Energy Markets Financial Econometrics Financial History Financial intermediation and money markets Financial markets and marketplaces Financial Mathematics and Econophysics Financial Regulation and Law Forecasting Frontier market studies International Finance Market efficiency, event studies Mergers, acquisitions and the market for corporate control Micro Finance Institutions Microstructure Non-bank Financial Institutions Personal Finance Portfolio choice and investing Real estate finance and investing Risk SME, Family and Entrepreneurial Finance