Rest and financial judgments: The impact of holidays on analyst accuracy

IF 3.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Banking & Finance Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107399

Sima Jannati

引用次数: 0

Abstract

I examine whether holidays affect the forecast accuracy of equity analysts. I find that earnings forecasts issued after holidays are, on average, more accurate than those issued before. Economically, this effect is equivalent to the impact of 73 months of experience on analyst accuracy. Using heuristic behavior as a proxy for improved rest, I find that analysts’ use of heuristics declines after holidays. I examine and rule out greater information availability, increased attention, and changes in sentiment as alternative mechanisms. Overall, the results suggest that short breaks from work meaningfully improve the quality of analysts’ performance.

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休息和财务判断：假期对分析师准确性的影响

我研究假期是否会影响股票分析师的预测准确性。我发现，平均而言，假期后发布的收益预测比假期前发布的预测更准确。从经济上讲，这种影响相当于分析师73个月的经验对准确性的影响。使用启发式行为作为改善休息的代理，我发现分析师使用启发式在假期后下降。我检查并排除了更多的信息可用性、更多的注意力和情绪变化作为替代机制的可能性。总体而言，研究结果表明，短暂的工作休息有效地提高了分析师的绩效质量。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Banking & Finance Multiple-

CiteScore

6.40

自引率

5.40%

发文量

262

期刊介绍： The Journal of Banking and Finance (JBF) publishes theoretical and empirical research papers spanning all the major research fields in finance and banking. The aim of the Journal of Banking and Finance is to provide an outlet for the increasing flow of scholarly research concerning financial institutions and the money and capital markets within which they function. The Journal''s emphasis is on theoretical developments and their implementation, empirical, applied, and policy-oriented research in banking and other domestic and international financial institutions and markets. The Journal''s purpose is to improve communications between, and within, the academic and other research communities and policymakers and operational decision makers at financial institutions - private and public, national and international, and their regulators. The Journal is one of the largest Finance journals, with approximately 1500 new submissions per year, mainly in the following areas: Asset Management; Asset Pricing; Banking (Efficiency, Regulation, Risk Management, Solvency); Behavioural Finance; Capital Structure; Corporate Finance; Corporate Governance; Derivative Pricing and Hedging; Distribution Forecasting with Financial Applications; Entrepreneurial Finance; Empirical Finance; Financial Economics; Financial Markets (Alternative, Bonds, Currency, Commodity, Derivatives, Equity, Energy, Real Estate); FinTech; Fund Management; General Equilibrium Models; High-Frequency Trading; Intermediation; International Finance; Hedge Funds; Investments; Liquidity; Market Efficiency; Market Microstructure; Mergers and Acquisitions; Networks; Performance Analysis; Political Risk; Portfolio Optimization; Regulation of Financial Markets and Institutions; Risk Management and Analysis; Systemic Risk; Term Structure Models; Venture Capital.